Voters in Honduras go to the polls on Sunday (30) amid an intense dispute between three tied candidates, characterized by mutual accusations of fraudulent schemes and international concerns about the integrity of the electoral process and respect for the results. In addition to this, the United States intervened, as Donald Trump announced his public support for one of the candidates.
The ongoing conflict in the Central American country will determine the successor to leftist President Xiomara Castro, in one round. Immediate re-election attempts are not permitted. In total, there are five candidates, but opinion polls indicate a technical tie at around 25% of intentions between former Defense Minister Rexy Moncada, of the ruling Liberdade e Refundação party; former mayor of the capital Tegucigalpa and Trump favorite Nasri Asfoura, from the conservative National Party; And TV presenter Salvador Nasrallah, from the centrist Liberal Party.
“The three candidates promoted the idea that if they didn’t win, it would be because the election was rigged,” he says. Bound Honduran political scientist José Mario Lopez, of the Institute for Think Tank, Research and Communication (ERIC). This deepens polarization and paves the way for skepticism about any outcome, because each group is convinced that its candidate will win.
The European Union and the Organization of American States sent missions to monitor the elections. Nine members of Congress from the United States, seven Republicans and two Democrats, are also expected to attend the elections.
Trump said that the right-wing bird is “the only true friend of freedom.” He stated that he “can’t work” with Moncada and that he does not trust Nasrallah. The US President also compared the fate of Honduras to that of Venezuela and wondered whether “Maduro and the drug terrorists will take over another country.” On Friday (28), he said that he would pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez, convicted of drug trafficking in the United States.
Moncada often refers to Nasrallah and Asfora as “puppets of the oligarchy” and claims they enjoy the support of the economic sector that ousted then-President Manuel Zelaya, Xiomara’s husband, in a military coup in 2009. Her opponents, in turn, brand her a communist, criticize her ties with Cuba and Venezuela, and say they fear she will use the armed forces to manipulate the electoral process.
The Attorney General’s Office, allied with the ruling party, accused opposition parties of planning fraud and opened an investigation into recordings that allegedly showed a high-ranking politician from the National Party discussing with a military officer ways to influence the elections. The recordings – which the National Party claims were generated by artificial intelligence – have become a major topic in Moncada’s campaign.
“If they try to harm us or commit fraud, they will see that our eruption will be like the largest volcano in history,” the candidate said at a campaign event in November.
Javier Acevedo, executive director of the Center for Research and Promotion of Human Rights in Honduras, says the attempt to delegitimize the results was already present in previous elections. The difference this time is the very small margin between the two candidates. Moreover, the state of exception in place since 2022 adds an additional layer of tension, significantly expanding the power of the ruling party and the armed forces.
More than 6.5 million Hondurans are eligible to vote, about 6% of whom live in the United States and can only choose the president. The elections also renew the 128 National Congress and mayoral seats across the country, for a period of four years.
According to a study conducted by the Institute for Justice, only 27% of those interviewed trust that the results announced by the National Electoral Council will reflect the will of the voters. Whoever wins, with the first results supposed to appear early Monday morning (1st), Brasilia time, the scenario is bleak.