Europe is discussing one of the most important and relevant topics since the creation of the European Union. The Draghi report and the study by the London School of Economics have put back to the center of the agenda a question that should be simple, but rarely receives clear answers: What do we need to do for the continent to return to sustainable growth? From here something new emerged: movements searching for long-term consensus, capable of outliving governments, directing strategic investments, and maintaining cohesion between countries.
Clearly, the European diagnosis is that in the absence of growth there is no way to finance the energy transition, defend the continent, deal with aging populations, and ensure technological independence in an ever more competitive world. Everything involves productivity and innovation, integration of industrial standards and institutional security. The district chose to discuss a new project; If it is to flourish, it must tell the story.
On the other side of the Atlantic, Brazil remains locked in superficial discussions. Since the Washington Consensus, whose principles inspired monetary stability, we have lacked a minimum set of priorities to guide policy and provide predictability to businesses. Essentially, engaging society in the challenge of growing more sustainably, with continuous improvement in social well-being.
Our problem is known and measurable. Brazilian productivity has been stagnant for four decades, and since 2010, according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the country’s potential growth has steadily slowed, reflecting limitations in technology, education and efficiency. The investment rate remains at about 18% of GDP, an insufficient level to support deeper economic modernization.
There are also well-known challenges: in a country where rules, bureaucracy and litigation abound, there is a lack of predictability in the business, learning and innovation environment. Overconsumption, is not always responsible; There is a lack of savings and efficient allocation of scarce resources.
At the same time, Brazil has real opportunities: clean energy, efficient agribusiness, valuable environmental assets, and the availability of natural resources that are becoming increasingly scarce on the planet. We have a public digital infrastructure like few other countries, of great scope and quality: Pix (5 billion monthly transactions), e-Social (over 80 million active links), Cadastro Único (39% of population), and Digital Identity (over 150 million). The SUS reaches at least 160 million Brazilians. International studies show that digitalization and interoperability can reduce the administrative cost of public services by up to 30%. For Brazil, where the “regulatory cost” is estimated at 1.5% of GDP, the potential gains would be significant. A state that is able to provide secure, standardized, and auditable data reduces friction and distractions, reduces the cost of service, and improves the quality of public policies.
But what we lack so far is not a diagnosis; It’s a consensus.
The European discussion highlights that sustainable growth does not arise from isolated initiatives, but from the mobilization of projects, based on principles shared by governments. Draghi and the London Stock Exchange agree on three basic pillars: 1) institutional and regulatory stability; 2) A productivity, technology and continuous innovation agenda; 3) Strategic investments with strong management – Defense will be one of the focus areas.
None of this happens spontaneously. These are political choices based on institutional maturity and financing capacity, and expressed by leaders committed to a vision for the future.
Brazil needs to build a similar movement. This requires setting minimum national goals, which society recognizes as indispensable, with clear metrics: increasing productivity; Increased predictability in the business environment; Simplifying systems and reducing investment costs; modernization of the state; Qualifying the workforce for the digital economy; And deepen our integration into international trade. Modernizing program design based on social dynamics, especially demographics, and deepening public security policies.
Countries that have overcome the middle-income trap have done so with continuity, clarity of priorities, enduring institutional commitments, and evaluation of results. There is no other way. Without this kind of rapprochement, politics turns into disagreements over means, while the country continues without discussing the ends.
Society—workers, businesses, academia, and governments—needs to return to the center of this discussion. Brazil has already succeeded in building an important consensus on combating inflation, which at its worst moments seemed like an insoluble problem. It is possible to build guidelines for the development of the country.
Growth requires a coherent institutional agenda, capable of reducing uncertainty, rebalancing finances, increasing productivity, attracting forces and institutions, and reconnecting Brazil to the future. And make the eyes of young people shine when they look at the opportunities available to them and their country.
Growth means making choices and building consensus to move forward. If we do not realize this, we will continue to replace occasional progress with repeated setbacks, wasting historic opportunities.
You must have a sense of urgency to advance.
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