The US dollar closed on November 28 in Colombia at an average of $3,744.36, after a month marked by notable exchange rate fluctuations. The currency experienced notable fluctuations during that month, driven by both external and internal factors. The annual revaluation of the Colombian peso approached 10%, while in November it reached 1.53%, which put the exchange rate below $3,800 and brought it closer to the equilibrium floor estimated at about $3,700.
According to experts, the dollar’s fluctuations in November were a response to a combination of financial and political uncertainty in the United States, coupled with the specific dynamics of the Colombian market, with some flashes of moderate sustainability in the month.
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Among international factors The temporary shutdown of the US government and the debate over the fiscal deficit emerged, raising doubts about bond issuance and confidence in US debt. In this regard, experts such as Henri Amorosho, professor of public finance and budgeting at the University of Rosario, explained InfoBay Colombia That “the United States, basically, kept the world in a state of uncertainty due to the fact of having a closed government because of the momentum that was also there in that country regarding public spending and, above all, the state of its fiscal situation, which of course is not the most favourable, because it has a very high fiscal deficit.”
Domestically, the Bank of the Republic of Colombia maintained the interest rate at 9.25%, which encouraged the inflow of foreign capital. In addition, the increase in remittances and the coffee boom – due to inventory crises in producing countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia and Brazil – contributed to the entry of dollars into the country.
For his part, Assistant Professor of Economics at Javeriana University, Adrian Garlatti, agreed that the dollar remained relatively stable in the last week of November and did not expect radical changes in December.
“No, I don’t think that will change radically. Maybe it could go up a little bit, but the most likely thing is that in one of those areas it will actually stay the same, because There are expectations that the Republic Bank will raise interest rates, because there are inflationary expectations for next year, especially in light of rumors that there will be a significant increase in the minimum wage. There are concerns that this means the bank will maintain or even raise interest rates, Garlatti said.
The economist also highlighted that the price difference between Colombia and the United States (current range between 3.75% and 4%) encourages the entry of dollars into the country, which could lead to a slight decrease in the price, although he does not expect a sudden drop. He pointed out, “Maybe it will go down a little throughout December, but nothing will collapse. I don’t think it will reach $3,500, but something will definitely go down because of this price difference that is happening in the economy recently.”
In turn, economist Andres Moreno Jaramillo, a certified financial advisor, highlighted that the dollar is still at the bottom of the decline range observed in recent months.
“In recent days, it has remained at the bottom of the range of decline that it has been experiencing. That is, It wasn’t just the dollar that rose above $3,820, it remains at the bottom of the trend. He explained that it is the dollar, which still maintains levels that we have not seen since approximately 2022.
Looking to next year, the expert expects a downward trend, although he warns that behavior will depend on interest rates in the United States and risk perception in Colombia. “For next year, the trend is still bearish. It obviously depends on interest rates in the US, and it also obviously depends on the risk perception that exists in Colombia. He added: “I think the dollar may be close to $3,900 at the end of the year, and for me, those are buying prices, and they should go up a little bit.” detained.
Regarding the forecast for December and the end of 2025, Professor Henry Amorosho estimates that the bearish behavior of the dollar will continue, despite fluctuations within a range similar to the current one. He pointed out, “For the month of December, this bearish behavior will be volatile, but it will be mainly volatile in a range similar to the closing range, which is $3,773 to $3,850.”
In addition, the price is expected to close near an average of $3,820 as of December 31, 2025, influenced by the dynamics of remittances and coffee exports at the end of the year.
The internal political and economic context also plays an important role in the development of the dollar. Amorosho warned of the uncertainty caused by the debate in the Congress of the Republic over the new tax reform or financing law of the Gustavo Petro government, which seeks to cover the budget gap of $16.9 billion.
According to the academic, the lack of consensus and the possibility that the law will not be passed may cause the price of the dollar to rise in the first days of next December. If the law is not approved, volatility may increase, especially due to the influx of foreign currency linked to tourism and imports at the end of the year.
Among the key figures for the period analyzed, Amorosho highlighted the revaluation of the Colombian currency, by nearly 10% during the year and 1.53% in November. The estimated range for the December dollar is between $3,773 and $3,850, with an expected average of $3,820. The domestic interest rate, set at 9.25%, is a determining factor in capital flowsWhile the increase in remittances and coffee exports strengthened the country’s exchange position.