As they plot votes and do political tailoring in the Senate, Jorge Messias’ allies believe he will rely on important, but muted, support in the battle to overcome the resistance of the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Davy Alclombre (Uniao Brasil-AP), and obtain the 41 votes needed to confirm his nomination to the Federal Supreme Court (STF).
- White Flag: Lola’s gesture to appease Alcolombre for helping Mesías
- Behind the scenes: Messiah’s nomination in a conflicted environment intensifies the war for votes in the Senate
At least five of Messias’ allies, interviewed privately by the blog, believe that many evangelical senators, including the Bolsonarians, may vote for him even if they do not admit it publicly.
Christ’s nomination is scheduled to be analyzed on the tenth of this month, and the vote will be secret, leaving room for betrayal by all parties.
- Conservative Caucus: Evangelicals are counting on Christ to block progress on STF’s progressive agenda
- Succession: Alcolumbre’s voting map to sabotage Messias’ candidacy in the STF
“Senators cannot declare their support for Christ so as not to burn with their Bolsonian voters or upset David,” a member of the Evangelical Parliamentary Front sums up what he heard privately on the blog. “The pressure is great and no one wants to be exposed to Colombian revenge.”
A study conducted by the Inter-Union Parliamentary Advisory Service (DIAB) shows that evangelical seats jumped from 7 to 13 senators between the 2018 and 2022 elections. These parliamentarians focus on issues such as abortion, same-sex marriage, stem cell research, the “partyless school,” and “gender ideology,” all of which have already been prosecuted before the Special Court.
- Coup Plot: PF and PGR see a difficult path to hand over Ramagem
- Read also: The “shock” with Dino could cause problems for Lula’s candidate for STF membership
“This support could make a difference, because our expectations point to a close result,” said one of Messias’ interlocutors, who is betting on approval in a range of 45 to 48 votes – to be confirmed in the position, the federation’s chief prosecutor needs at least 41 favorable votes.
From the side The Colombian in the “war of numbers”Calculations indicate that Mesías currently has only between 28 and 31 votes and will achieve low support among evangelicals, despite the commitment of one of his main allies in the House of Representatives, evangelical Senator Elisian Gama (PSD-MA).
- Al-Muallem: A new wave of central bank investigations is coming
- However: The political pressure on British Columbia was unprecedented, technicians told investigators
One of the difficulties for Messias is to overcome the resistance of a faction of parliamentarians who consider him “an ideological cadre of the Workers’ Party” and “a man of trust for Lula and Dilma,” and to whom the “evangelical quality” does not attach.
“This aspect of Mesías being an evangelical is not convincing, and this does not translate into a vote for him here, because his behavior shows a political ideological alignment with the PT and Lula, not a religious one,” says the Bolsonian shock troops parliamentarian.
As the column team predicted, One of the main electoral leaders of Christ To rally support among evangelical senators comes STF Minister Andre Mendonça, who was appointed to the position by former President Jair Bolsonaro in 2021.
- In the crosshairs: PF will investigate Master’s billion-dollar operation with state and municipal pension funds
The two who head the prosecutor’s office are evangelicals – Mesías is a member of the Baptist Church, while Mendonça is a Presbyterian minister – and also suffered at the hands of Alcolombre.
In the case of Mendonça, Alcolombre, who was at the time chairman of the Senate Committee on the Constitution and Justice, postponed the session for more than four months and worked behind the scenes not only to dismiss the “terrible evangelicals,” but also to put the then Prosecutor General of the Republic, Augusto Arras, in office.
- Understanding: Investigation says ‘fabricated’ contracts made by Master and BRB to justify transfer of R$12.2 billion
Now, Alcolombre has changed his strategy to undermine Messias’ chances. He decided to schedule the hearing and vote on the 10th of next month, giving Lula’s chosen one just two weeks to wander the Senate offices in search of support.
However, the President of the Republic has not yet sent the letter to the Senate to formalize Messias’ nomination, which behind the scenes is seen as a way for Palacio do Planalto to attempt to halt the process and force the hearing to be postponed.
- Risky business: Caixa technicians warned in 2024 that Master does not have “clarity, effectiveness and consistency in his numbers”
It did not work, because Alcombre had already sent a message that since the nomination had already been published in the Official Journal of the Federation, the hearing could be held.
But so is Lola Willing to deliver the document personally to Alcolumbre In a calming gesture.
In addition to Mendonça, Minister Casio Nunes Márquez – who was also appointed to the position by Bolsonaro and has a good distribution among conservative parliamentarians – is helping Mesías’ campaign in the Senate.
Evangelical leaders are betting on the confirmation of Christ Strengthening the “conservative bloc” in the STF and preventing the advancement of progressive agendas, such as decriminalizing abortion and the participation of children and teens in LGBTQIA+ pride parades.
- Read also: Banco Master appoints Alexandre de Moraes’ wife
For these Messias allies, the Federation’s prosecutor could ally himself with a more conservative wing of the STF, which would include Cristiano Zanin, Dias Toffoli, Luiz Fox (who has already said that the court needs to “decide not to decide” on cases that would be the responsibility of Congress) and the two ministers Bolsonaro appointed to the court – Nunes Márquez and Mendonça.
These ministers do not act as a homogeneous bloc that always votes on issues such as abortion, drug decriminalization and issues of concern to the LGBTQIA+ community.
But they are judges whom conservatives view as more in line with their values – and who are more resistant to interference by the judiciary in matters that might otherwise be the responsibility of Congress.
In the history of the Republic, only President Floriano Peixoto has been rejected by the Senate, five in all, all in 1894, including the nomination of the doctor Parata Ribeiro, who gave the name to the street in Rio’s Copacabana neighborhood.