Inflation estimates for this year witnessed the third consecutive decline, in the Focus Bulletin, which was issued on Monday morning. The market expectation for IPCA is 4.43%, below the target ceiling of 4.5%. In monthly inflation forecasts, market estimates indicate an increase of 0.20% (-1 for November and 0.47% for December). The forecast for 2026 was also lowered slightly to 4.17%.
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In his analysis for Focus, Ettore Sánchez, economist at Ativa Investimentos, draws attention to the sharp decline in the 2025 IPCA distribution over the past three months. “It’s not just a drop in the average, the most optimistic views have been abandoned, while the relatively normal shape until last month is now largely focused at the low end,” Sanchez highlights.
GDP estimates were maintained for the fifth consecutive week at 2.16%. The third-quarter GDP will be released this Thursday, and analysts’ forecasts point to confirming the slowdown in the economy, but without interrupting the sequence of positive quarterly results: there will be 17 consecutive positive results on the margin and 19 in the annual comparison, according to Macro 4 Intelligence. The central bank survey showed only a change in GDP growth estimates in 2027, falling from 1.88% to 1.83%.
For the twenty-third week in a row, analysts consulted by the Central Bank kept their expectations for the economy’s basic interest rates at the end of this year at 15%. The only change in the Selec Prospectus was made in the 2028 scenario: the reduction from 9.75% to 9.50%.