- Melkonian: The “mistake” made by the government
- Danger is not like that, Coca.
Carlos Melkonian He once again sounded the alarm over the government’s exchange rate policy, and stated that the current discussions on the dollar were “unfocused.”
In conversation with Radio RivadaviaThe economic expert confirmed that the problems he warned about before the elections “are the same.” He strongly questioned the official strategy for managing reserves and the exchange rate.
“The first external sector obligation for which the government has to buy dollars is that it has to pay interest,” the former head of Nation Bank said, focusing on an issue he considers central and under-discussed.
Along these lines, he explained that Argentina has Debt maturities of principal and interest are approximately $10 billion in 2026He warned that in 2024 they were paid with reserves while in 2025 “they were paid with what should not have been paid, which is either the silver of the fund or the reserve requirement in dollars.”
For Melkonian, the treasury Dollars must be purchased along with surplus funds in pesos to meet these obligations and Only then can you think about accumulating reserves. “If you have dollars left after 10 Lucas of a positive exchange market, only then does the process of accumulating reserves begin,” he said.
Melkonian: The “mistake” made by the government
The economist particularly criticized the equity release implemented by the government in April, a measure he described as a “mistake.” He pointed out that since that opening, people have bought $32,000,000 worth of money, but… Only US$6 billion remained in bank deposits. “That means 20% left. That means that.” It is no mean feat for dollar deposits to reach a record high“, he sneered.
Regarding the exchange rate range, Melkonian raised a fundamental contradiction: “What cannot be done is to make it more flexible by wanting to have a range at $1,500, because if the Treasury has to buy dollars to pay interest and the exchange rate reaches $1,509, the government will have to sell because it is over the ceiling.”
The economist also relativized the debate on the exchange rate delay. “At 1,500 we can discuss whether the delay is yes, and if the delay is no,” he admitted, but he insisted. The central problem of today’s level of activity occurs elsewhere: “The average official private salary is 20% lower under Macri, and there is a collapse in credit that mainly affects the sale of durable goods.”
Danger is not like that, Coca.
They owned me Finally, he doubted that the government attributed all the demand for the dollar to the “Coke danger.”Since April and September, when the ruling party topped the polls by 45 points, more than US$20 billion has already been sold.
He added: “In any case, demand for the dollar continued and strengthened after September 7, when electoral doubts emerged.”
“Since stocks opened, people have bought US$32 billion, but only US$6 billion remains in bank deposits. It is no achievement that dollar deposits reach a record level.”
At the end of the conversation, the economist insisted again on this The debate should focus on how the government uses its fiscal surplus to meet dollar debt obligationsInstead of accumulating reserves or discussing the exchange rate level.
“All the discussions I have seen in the last 15 days of the exchange market are out of focus,” he concluded.
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