With just four races remaining, the Formula 1 world championship has become completely unpredictable. Three drivers are in contention: Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, McLaren teammates, are separated by a single point and with Max Verstappen (Red Bull), the current champion, still lurking 36 points behind the leader. With the system in place since 2010, which awards 25 for a win, any scenario is still possible.
For much of the year the fight was between the two McLaren youngsters, who are looking for their first title, but after the summer break, Verstappen entered the fray. The winner of the last four World Cups is keeping his options alive after a great recovery.
Online prediction markets are a good barometer of bets for those who follow the championship. In the Polymarket, one of the biggest, Norris leads after the resounding victory in Mexico, where his rivals lost ground: Verstappen was third and Piastri, fifth. In the last five races, the Brit scored more points than his teammate and regained the championship lead for the first time since the fourth stage, held in Saudi Arabia.
Piastri is the one who arrives in the worst situation. He hasn’t been on the podium in four races and has had to bear the pressure of being the driver to beat for much of the season. His lowest point was the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, where he crashed on the first lap and had to retire.
The one who has nothing to lose – and knows what it means to be champion – is Verstappen. In fact, his first title, in 2021, was taken from Lewis Hamilton, who had just won the previous five world championships with Mercedes, in a film that ended with the final Grand Prix of the season. Of the last six races, the Dutchman has won three and been on the podium in the rest.
There are still 116 points at stake: 25 for each of the four races, plus the two sprints (in Brazil and Qatar), shorter races that take place on Saturdays before qualifying and which award eight points to the winner. The first battle will be this weekend in Brazil, where last year Verstappen took an epic victory in the rain after starting from 17th place. In the sprint, however, the winner was Norris.
Closest finish since 2010
To keep the title, the Dutchman needs to win as many races as possible and expect bad results from his rivals. If Verstappen wins in all of them and Norris comes in second, the Briton will be proclaimed champion. It also wouldn’t be enough for the Red Bull driver if Piastri finished second in each race.
If he achieved this, Verstappen would probably sign the biggest recovery in the history of Formula 1. Since the current scoring system was established in 2010 – 25 points for victory – the most notable was that of Sebastian Vettel in 2012. With seven races to go, the German was 39 points behind Fernando Alonso, but he string together four consecutive victories and ended up winning the World Cup by just three points, in an unforgettable final at Interlagos.
Another famous comeback was in 2007. Kimi Räikkönen (Ferrari) entered the last two races with 17 points less than Lewis Hamilton, when victory gave him 10. Two consecutive victories – in China and Brazil – and McLaren’s collapse allowed the Finn to win the title with a single point advantage over Hamilton and Fernando Alonso.