Miley and Kabuto They are determined to show that this time is different, and that those who bet on the dollar do not always win. Especially after what happened Exchange rate operation Between last April and October, which is a record number since leaving the transfer system.
According to the latest data from Central bank exchange balanceSince the lifting of restrictions imposed on individuals in April, there has been “(net) purchase of banknotes and currencies for no specific purposes.” 29,929 million US dollars. These purchases have fueled what is called “formation of foreign assets” (FAE), the classic Argentine approach: dollars leave the system on the bed, or into safe deposit boxes, or into accounts abroad. According to IndicThe Argentines have more than $255,000 million in bills out of the system.
This time the bullfight had unique characteristics, because it took place in the context of restrictions imposed on businesses, and the additional cost of payments abroad by card to State taxand without banking risks, as it was clear that “Currency mismatch“So, buying dollars from people, part of it was supplying the dollarization of companies in the financial market, and part of it stayed the same. Deposits in banks ($6.5 billion) and another went to pay the bill for purchasing cards abroad to avoid the PAIS tax.
Miley and Caputo want to rebuild Demand for the peso. They believe the best way is to ratify, as they did, the current scheme Exchange bands accurately. “It can almost be said that the scheme to stabilize demand for the peso is to repeatedly punish those who buy dollars, betting that they are like a dog from Pavlov “Argentines have become convinced that the reserve asset is the peso, not the dollar, and they are stopping buying the dollar, and it is better to get it out of bed,” he says. Marina dal Pogetto In the latest report from consulting firm Eco Go.
President of BCRA, Santiago BoselliHe said that they “will not buy dollars at an artificially high exchange rate,” and that they “will only do so through the capital account when demand for the peso allows it.” The problem is that with this dollar, some trends are deepening it, from the point of view of the “global economy”.Markets“-Argentines with Dollars on the mattress and more sophisticated foreign investors, which reflects the problems of the past.
In 10 months of 2025 Imports It increased by 29% (in China and Brazil, 61% and 39%, respectively). Capital goods grow by 61%, consumer goods by 63%, and automobiles by 115%. The merchandise trade surplus declined 15,969 million US dollars in 2024 to US$6,846 million this year (of which about US$6,000 million corresponds to surplus capacity).
while “Tourism deficit“(Travel and purchases abroad with the card) reached 8,000 million US dollars, which is a record number since 2017, as it reached 10,700 million US dollars over the course of the year at current prices. Thus, the bank’s current account Balance of payments (The dollars a country generates versus what it spends) fell from a surplus of 0.8% of GDP gross domestic product in 2024 ($8 billion) to a deficit of 1.7% projected for 2025 ($-12 billion).
In 2017, Macri financed a deficit of Current account of 5 points of GDP, which later ended in the crisis. But there is a big difference: this time, with… Financial balanceA deficit is an excess of spending or investment by the private sector that will or will not be financed by the state Private sector.
he Country danger Today it remains at 650 points, about 100 points higher than last January, when the government had not yet won the elections, there were restrictions on natural persons, and there was no agreement with the International Monetary Fund or guarantee against default. Trump-Pascent With currency swap. The reason can be found in the Central Bank, which does not have its own reserves (with negative net reserves of – 2000 million US dollars; and in the calculations of the International Monetary Fund, which subtracts the organization’s payments, in – 16,000 million US dollars). With the dollar very close to the ceiling of the range and with an exchange plan that prevents it, at the present time, from adding reserves.
In November, with a significant decline in the supply of agricultural dollars (according to… Ciaraonly $760 million, the second worst November in 15 years), currencies entered with the deposit of corporate debt, about $4,200 million, register In the era of Miley. But the central bank did not buy a single dollar, and the Treasury did so only in small quantities. In December, the price of wheat is expected to reach a minimum of 2,000 million US dollars, which should dampen the dynamics of the exchange market, in a month when individuals and companies give up dollars in exchange for… Pay bills.
a question background It is whether this exchange rate will bring enough dollars into the capital account to fund growth at this Impotence Current account, refinancing capital maturities from dollar debt and Reserves accumulate.
data of Financial account The balance of payments shows that in 2025 financing came from the IMF, international organizations and Becent (US$19,582 million in the first ten months), from debt issuance by companies (US$12,744 million), and only US$1,411 million from “Portfolio investment“Of those who subscribed to peso bonds in dollars in May (and have so far lost 6%).” Foreign direct investment in accounts BCRAIt was negative by 1.6 billion US dollars.
If you don’t want to continue counting on next year BessentIt will be important to maintain debt issuance by companies, increase direct investment, and government Debt can be placed on the market. But the key will be to collapse FAE And without stocks, there will be a “miracle” of dollars getting out of bed.
If BCRA fails to buy dollars in the middle of the range or due to some unforeseen event, the dollar goes back to the ceiling, the entire system will have to be recalibrated. Exchange scheme: Expand the bands or, as Cavallo insists, release stocks and let the dollar float, with an announced plan to buy. Reservations.