Kaja KalasOn Monday, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy expressed her fears that the meeting between the two countries would continue Steve Witkoff and Vladimir Putin Leads to a new wave of demands on Ukraine. He added: “I fear that all pressure will be directed towards the victim, meaning that Ukraine must make concessions and bear obligations.”
Klaas knows very well what she is talking about: during the first two years of the war, she was one of the most faithful spokesmen for the country’s government. Volodymyr Zelensky And her defense of international legitimacy as Prime Minister of Estonia.
If anyone can allow themselves to be pessimistic about Russia’s position in this conflict and what US support for its claims might mean, it is precisely the Baltics, the weakest link in the European Union and NATO given their status as neighbors of Russia and former members of the Soviet Union. For example, from Narva, one of the most important cities in the country, to St. Petersburg, there are barely 135 kilometers.
Callas expressed his regret that the Trump administration, and its special envoy specifically, is clearly biased towards the Kremlin’s theses, because they represent an attack on the United Nations Charter and seem to want to impose the law of the strongest in diplomatic relations.
He said in a press conference, “If this succeeds… we will see that whoever has the power gets what he wants, and this is not in the interest of most countries in the world.”
Macron and Zelensky meet in Paris
Callas’s pessimism, a pessimism shaped by decades of fighting against Russian propaganda and its imperial threats, contrasts with Russia’s optimism. Emmanuel MacronFrench President. Macron, who is fiercely competitive at home but respected abroad, has never given up on imposing French positions on the geopolitical stage at a time when everything seems to happen through the United States, Russia, China and, at times, through the monarchies of the Middle East.
Macron, who has tried to stop the war until the last minute through several meetings and talks with Putin in recent weeks and is the main promoter of the so-called coalition of the willing to support Ukraine, met on Monday with Zelensky to show his support again.
In a display of magical thinking, the French president confirmed that he hopes to transfer to the United States the agreements reached with Ukraine, and reiterated that his forces are ready to act as a security guarantee for any ceasefire with Russia.
Although the relationship between Macron and Trump has always been excellent, and at the time it was possible to say the same about his relationship with Putin, the truth is that these words only reflect an unrealistic view of the situation. Russia will never accept NATO forces in the neighboring country… nor will the White House contradict the Kremlin on such an important aspect.
What Trump is looking for is another peace rather than signing up at all costs and getting back to doing business as soon as possible. Exactly the same thing Witkoff is looking for.
The other battle for Donbass
Impromptu Special Envoy – Remember that in the beginning the special envoy was the retired general Keith KelloggBut Moscow used its veto against him because he was not submissive enough, and held a telephone conversation with Zelensky as part of the negotiations led by the Ukrainian delegation. Rustam Umarov goes with Marco Rubio Witkoff himself is in Miami. The goal is to reach an agreement that can then be conveyed to Putin in Moscow.
Neither the content of the conversation nor the negotiations emerged, although Rubio was very optimistic, as is usually the case.
But it was leaked that the goal would be to establish a line of communication between Russia and Ukraine that could be used to establish a ceasefire there. This is a position that Trump has been pushing for some time, and in fact, after his meeting with Putin in Alaska, he actually tried to draw lines with Zelensky and his European allies in the White House. Didn’t help much.
It didn’t help, basically, because Putin has his own sense of what regional justice is and that includes, at a minimum, Donbass, the occupied part and the not-yet-occupied part that may take years to get under control.
Although the Kremlin – and sometimes Washington – insists that “Ukraine will lose those territories sooner or later,” the reality is that Slovyansk and Kramatorsk are prepared for a very long battle that Russia, of course, cannot take for granted.
Zelensky’s internal crisis
We hope that Putin will convey these conditions back to Witkov, and that Witkov will find them admirable. What is not clear is that even this is not enough for Moscow.
We must remember that the so-called Trump plan, which was in fact a translation of a Russian plan, was transmitted Kirill Dmitriev Witkov himself did not particularly attract the attention of the Russian president. Although the plan actually included transferring the entire Donbass region to Russia, Putin simply thought it was a “good starting point.” Without further ado.
Anything other than the similar scenario described by Kalas in his press conference would be a real surprise.
Putin will arrive with the maximum proposal, Witkov will water it down to the minimum, Putin will tell him it’s possible, and Witkov will run excitedly to tell Trump now. J.D. Vance And peace is only one step away. After that, Trump will call Zelensky or threaten him on social media, setting an ultimatum that neither Europe nor Ukraine will accept. And so on.
Currently, taking into account the fragility of Zelensky’s government after the corruption cases that affected its second man, Andrei YermakPutin is unlikely to want to reach any peace agreement.
Their big option is the collapse of the Kiev government and the emergence of some pro-Russian movement that seizes power or influences it enough to accept de facto dependence on Moscow, similar to Russia. Alexander LukashenkoThus avoiding having to send more men to die at the front.