Will the United States attack Venezuela or not? This is the question that has been on the minds of geopolitical experts all weekend. In the absence of confirmation or denial, what can be done to try to guess which direction the winds will blow in the coming days or weeks is to look at the deployment carried out by the United States since August in the Caribbean and compare it to other previous deployments that have led to military attacks.
Today, Washington has an aircraft carrier in those waters — the USS Gerald R. Ford – an amphibious assault ship – USS Iwo Jima – six destroyers, two cruisers, a nuclear submarine, and several support ships. In addition, the Pentagon sent fifteen F-35 fighters to its bases in Puerto Rico, B-52 bombers, countless drones, and 186 Tomahawk cruise missiles; 36 more than those used during the 2011 military campaign to overthrow the Libyan leader Muammar GaddafiAccording to the data he obtained Semaphore.
This means that what is in front of Venezuela now is more similar to what was used during the 1991 Gulf War than what was used during the campaign a few years ago against ISIS.
In addition to all of the above, the United States has also deployed about 20,000 troops in the Caribbean, including special operations groups. A small fraction of all active personnel in the world’s leading force (1.3 million people, not counting reservists or National Guard).
On the other hand, according to an academic at the Strategic Studies Institute of the US Army War College Evan EllisThe Venezuelan armed forces barely number 100,000 professional soldiers. They will not exceed this number even by adding the forces that make up the National Guard – 23,000 men in uniform – or 15,000 Marines.
“The flaw in military firepower is undeniable,” Ellis explains. “Maduro’s small number of Igla-S portable anti-aircraft weapons could destroy a handful of US helicopters, but few are likely to be in working condition, and even these may not be in the hands of those who know how to use them.”
“Such a military force has the ability to confront almost any country in the world,” the geopolitical analyst says. Michael Shurkin In reference to what the United States published in the Caribbean. “And much more so if what we have in front of us is a third-rate military power like Venezuela.”
The call
Tensions between Washington and Caracas reached a new level a few days ago. It was after a three-way phone call –Donald TrumpHis Minister of Foreign Affairs Marco Rubio And his own Nicolas Maduro– Organized by Brazil, Qatar and Turkey in order to bring positions closer together. Quite the opposite happened.
According to Miami HeraldOne of the major newspapers in Florida and the outlet that broadcast the details of the conversation during which Maduro wanted to negotiate his departure from power.
First by demanding “global amnesty for any crimes he and his group may have committed,” then, after seeing Trump and Rubio’s refusal, they agreed to hold free elections on the condition that Venezuela’s armed forces, regardless of the outcome, remain under his control.
Trump and Rubio again declined, but offered to ensure a “safe transition for him and his wife.” Flores cilia And his son” if he agreed to immediately relinquish power and leave the Latin American country. It was Maduro who answered in the negative.
A few days after that call, which ended abruptly, Trump went public to say that Venezuelan airspace should be considered “completely closed.” After reading that, Maduro tried to talk to him, but the North American president made it clear Heraldrefused to call the phone.
Sun cartel
At this point, it is worth remembering that officially, according to the White House, the US military deployment in the Caribbean has only one purpose: to combat drug trafficking. This means: eliminating the criminal organizations that send drugs to the United States through Venezuela.
However, according to the White House, the Venezuelan criminal network has a main champion: the Sun Cartel. A rather abstract name that is supposed to include a whole series of high-ranking officials in the Venezuelan armed forces dedicated to transporting large quantities of drugs and linked, according to Washington, to Maduro’s circle. In fact, the State Department has offered $50 million for the capture of the Venezuelan leader, and Trump recently described him as “the biggest drug trafficker in the world.”
In short: According to the logic presented by the White House, fighting drug trafficking and fighting against Nicolas Maduro’s regime are the same thing.
“Maduro is a ruthless dictator, and the Venezuelan people voted decisively against him,” another prominent geopolitical analyst commented on Monday. Ian Bremmer. He added: “There is no doubt about any of that, but if Trump unilaterally decides to change the regime, the United States will be responsible for the outcome.”
For now, the US military campaign has focused on “interdiction” –So In the air – boats that transport drugs from the Venezuelan coast to other areas of the Caribbean, and from there they proceed to distribute them. These attacks have claimed the lives of around 80 people, while international law specialists cry out against this modus operandi.
Now…what are the next steps to follow? For now, Trump met on Monday with Rubio and with Pete HegsethPentagon chief to discuss the road map. There will be news soon, then.