Former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s public appearance, like almost everything a left-wing politician does or fails to do, has sparked a host of theories about his hidden intentions. In political and media circles, it was commented weeks ago that the founder of Morena would emerge from his strict imprisonment to wander in public squares in the country, under the pretext of presenting his latest book, greatness (The Planet, 2025). Between the lines, this interpretation suggests that López Obrador had disavowed his successor, President Claudia Sheinbaum, and saw it as necessary to regain control of his movement, which he called the Fourth Transformation.
Such a reading clashes with all the signals provided by reality itself. Entering her first year in office, Sheinbaum is the most popular president in recent decades. He enjoys support not only within Mexico: but also from abroad, largely because of the way Donald Trump, the president of the United States, has succeeded in reducing pressure on the nuclear bomb, through his volcanic foreign policy of coercion and threats. Sheinbaum is reaching his one-year anniversary in office by taking steps in his cabinet that will allow him greater political control over the government. These maneuvers inevitably involve reversing some of the decisions or arrangements made by López Obrador before his departure.
These changes fueled theories of turning away from his political mentor. The explanation seems more realistic. Analyst Jorge Zepeda notes that the first year of Sheinbaum’s six-year term is still a transition year, as he assesses results and balances the model of government that López Obrador inherited from him with his own vision of public administration that relies more on technology and data. The president’s latest move, an explosive shake-up in the prosecutor’s office, with Alejandro Girtz seemingly fixed, left little room for doubt about her complete control of the reins of power.
Critics of Morena, the ruling party, insist there is a rift between Sheinbaum and López Obrador. The president said in her book Diary of historical transformationthat there is no, and never will be, such an interruption. Not only because it would be a political miscalculation (López Obrador left the presidency with very high levels of popularity), but because, she said, she agreed with the former president on the diagnosis and method of doing politics: her government’s commitment must be to the poor, City – a term very present in Morinist ideology – which must be constantly mobilized not only in search of support and legitimacy, but also for defense and protection. Lopez Obrador said it in one of his last communal baths, in the Zocalo in the capital: “Who do we trust? The people! Who protects us? The people! Who are we? The people!”
López Obrador’s resurgence is no coincidence. Far from presenting his book, which was a plea in favor of indigenous peoples and, again, against the Spanish conquest, the former president looked up and judged: “It is still the season for eagles, vultures and hawks.” Morena’s founder, an expert at reading signs, sees three storms lurking in the distance: violations of sovereignty, an attack on democracy, or a coup. The risks are inherent and intertwined. Trump is leading an attack in Latin America under the pretext of the war on drugs. The extreme right takes power in several countries in the region with the approval of the United States and large capital. In Mexico, where parties still play within the democratic framework, the echoes of the far right are rising and seducing young people.
Lopez Obrador called on Mexicans to support Sheinbaum. The president thanked her for her support, but asked for calm, as she indicated that the ominous scenarios proposed by her predecessor do not exist at the present time. One of the functions of history is to look into the distance, anticipation. What López Obrador did was not a return to the audience, but a quick glance, opening the curtain, revealing his face a little, and looking from the other side, seeing and being seen.