The global economy has been able to withstand the tariff and geopolitical shock faced by the new US administration led by Donald Trump better than expected, but there are many dark clouds still looming over the horizon for the coming years. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lists the potential new increase in trade barriers with a consequent slowdown in international stock markets, a sudden correction of high asset valuations in stock markets – driven by AI-enabled corporate profits – and high fiscal imbalances accumulating in countries, which could lead to a higher cost of sovereign debt and a slowdown in growth, as sources of risk. “The outlook remains fragile,” the Paris-based organization summarizes in its latest global outlook report, which it publishes on Tuesday.
With these factors in mind, the OECD keeps its forecasts for global economic growth stable: it estimates that there will be a moderation in the next two years, after which there will be a slight recovery. Global GDP will advance by 3.2% in 2025, then decline to 2.9% in 2026, followed by a slight increase to 3.1% in 2027. The euro area will continue to decline, at a pace of just above 1% on an annual basis in all three years. The US will also not shine in terms of its economic performance: of the 2% forecast for this year, GDP will advance by 1.7% in 2026 and by 1.9% in 2027.
In addition to its expectations, the organization, which brings together the world’s most advanced economies, calls for markets to remain open and international trade flows not to stop. He recommends in his report that “constructive dialogue between countries is necessary to ensure a lasting solution to trade tensions and improve economic prospects.” Economic outlook. “All things being equal, an open and efficient global market translates into better living standards and stronger growth,” he adds.
The appeal in favor of free trade goes hand in hand with bearish expectations regarding international exchanges. This rate is expected to decline by 4.2% to 2.3% next year and rebound slightly in 2027 to 2.8%. “Given the fragility of the global economy, countries must redouble their efforts to engage in a constructive dialogue that ensures a lasting solution to trade tensions and reduces political uncertainty,” OECD Secretary-General Matthias Cormann added while presenting the report.
Once again, Spain figures well into the picture, at least in terms of growth. The OECD keeps its forecast unchanged, a recovery of 2.9% for 2025, 2.2% in 2026, and 1.8% in 2027, which are low marks, but higher in all average eurozone years and at the top of the developed countries. The document highlights “strong job creation and real wage growth” as drivers of activity, which will continue to drive private consumption, as well as investment dynamism thanks to European money injections.
However, as the organization described last week in its special report on Spain, it warns of persistent fiscal imbalances and specifically of the high public debt ratio. Despite the strong correction from the highest levels recorded during the pandemic, liabilities remain at around 100% of GDP. Increasing pressures on long-term spending – driven in particular by aging populations and rising pension costs – pose a threat. For this reason, the OECD insists on the need to design measures to stem the increase in pension disbursements, reduce inefficient spending, and improve tax collection. It also recommends creating a “more favorable business environment” to encourage further growth in investment and productivity, and reduce administrative and regulatory burdens, as well as the differences that currently exist in national, regional and local regulations.