Weakened by Michel, Flavio Bolsonaro slips into talks about 2026 and falls into the crosshairs of the STF

The biggest obstacles relate to building an agreement to pardon Jair Bolsonaro and creating coalitions for the 2026 elections, both at the national level and in regional agreements.

The first challenge occurred less than a week after he was selected as spokesperson. Flavio’s stepmother, former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro, president of PL Mulher, exposed differences during a trip to Ceara last weekend by declaring that she is against an alliance with former Minister Ciro Gomez (PSDB), who has been cited as a possible candidate for governor of Ceara.

Michele’s speech causes a crisis in the group and prompts Flavio to publicly disavow her. He received the endorsement of his brothers, federal MP Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) and Chancellor Carlos Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), highlighting the division in the family, which has now worsened without the former president being the deciding vote to give the final say.

However, due to disagreements, the possibility of an alliance between the Bolsonarians and Ciro Gomez was put on hold. Victory for Michel.

Another of these obstacles that Flavio faces is the struggle with the heads of the Centrao parties to determine who will be the right-wing candidate in 2026. The leaders of the Brazilian Confederation, the Popular Party, the Republicans and the Social Democratic Party are moving towards the governor of São Paulo, Tarcicio de Freitas (Republicans), but Flavio received from his father the task of postponing this definition as long as possible.

In the face of disagreements, the head of the People’s Party, Senator Ciro Nogueira, publicly complained of a “lack of common sense and strategy in the center and on the right” and said that the União-PP should focus on creating large groups in Congress, signaling an abandonment of the commitment to run for the presidency.

There is also a conflict regarding amnesty. Bolsonaro’s supporters want a wide-ranging bill that would get Bolsonaro out of prison and restore his eligibility. The Centrao parties have already begun to formulate a project to reduce sanctions. Flavio has called for a broad amnesty, but at the same time he has spoken to parliamentarians in Centrao who are promising to measure doses and reduce sentences. When contacted, Flavio did not answer.

Another sign of the difficulties came from the former president’s preventive arrest when he violated his electronic ankle monitor. The vigil organized by Flavio was used by Federal Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes as one of the justifications for the arrest, further complicating the father’s legal situation.

“The Senator of the Republic is using the same modus operandi as the criminal organization that attempted the coup in 2022, using a digital militia methodology to spread messages of attack and hatred against institutions through multiple channels,” an excerpt from Moraes’ decision reads.

For the allies, the minister’s message was that Flavio could also be investigated if he continued his hostile tone against the judiciary.

Afterwards, the senator complained on live television that “they want to bury all the Bolsonaros alive,” but he was cautious about his political future and denied being a presidential candidate, expressing his preference to try to be re-elected as a senator.

However, Flavio’s name increasingly began to be mentioned as a presidential option, mainly to counter the desire of the Centrao parties to nominate Tarcisio.

Representative Eduardo Bolsonaro, the senator’s brother, was one of those who spoke about the possibility of Flavio running. The allies estimate that the senator, despite his caution, does not rule out representing his father in the electoral dispute.

Senate opposition leader Rogerio Marinho (PL-RN) acknowledges the difficulties involved in 2026 and an amnesty, but says it will be possible to reach an agreement. He announced that by the end of the year the senator would be able to help reach an understanding on a pardon or commutation of sentences.

– Flavio is a person with great political experience and enjoys the trust of everyone, especially President Bolsonaro. So just be patient, by the end of the legislative period I think we will reach a good agreement (on amnesty or dosing).

When talking about Flavio being a presidential candidate in 2026, Marinho disagreed.

– Who will decide at the right time is President Bolsonaro. It’s a shame to talk about it now, he says.

But other parliamentarians are speaking openly about this possibility.

— He has all the credentials — Flavio has wisdom and experience and will know how to listen to everyone, take responsibility and lead the way, said Rep. Iver de Mello (PP-ES), deputy leader of the opposition in the chamber. We know that we are going through a transition period and that Senator Flavio will overcome all the difficulties that may arise at the present time. We will all be united in 2026.

Even in Congress, Flavio also shows difficulties in driving right-wing agendas.

The senator, chairman of the Senate Security Committee, has played a minor role in discussions on the topic, which is sensitive to the left and could bring gains to the right.

He was not part of the CPI’s leadership on organized crime and was not chosen as rapporteur of the PL Antifaction in the Senate, although he requested it from the Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP).

In the Chamber of Deputies, for example, it was Representative Guilherme Dirret (PP-SP), a prior candidate for the Senate with the support of the Centrao parties, who led the discussions.

— Flavio is the firstborn in the family, he is very prepared and will lead this whole process — said the leader of the Liberal Party in the chamber, Sostinis Cavalcanti (RJ). But he avoids talking about running for president. -Our name is Bolsonaro, and that’s why we’re fighting for amnesty.

Unlike Eduardo, who has accumulated criticism of party leaders, members of the União-PP leadership emphasize a dialogue with the senator.

Due to the friction with Eduardo and the judicial blockade imposed on him, the MP’s name was ignored by the party bosses as one of the spokesmen for the right-wing presidential ticket, but Flavio constantly participates in the talks.

The parties want an induction for Bolsonaro before the end of the year, and have already expressed their discomfort with the fact that the former president has been detained in a closed system without the matter being addressed yet.

Unlike his brother’s deputy and father, Flavio does not usually enter into confrontation when he is under political or judicial siege.

STF in Bolsonaros’ goal

So far, Flavio has distinguished himself from his younger brothers by evading STF investigations. Eduardo Bolsonaro was charged with coercion during the operation, due to his activities in the United States.

The Federal Police (PF) has indicted Chancellor Carlos Bolsonaro in the investigation into a parallel structure created within the Brazilian intelligence agency (APIN), but the case is still being analyzed by the Public Prosecutor’s Office (PGR).

In the decision ordering Bolsonaro’s arrest, Alexandre de Moraes stated that Flavio’s video “incites disrespect for the constitutional text, the judicial decision and the institutions themselves, demonstrating that there are no limits to the criminal organization in trying to cause social chaos and conflicts in the country, in complete disrespect for democracy.”

The Minister also directly linked Eduardo’s actions in the United States, which are already being investigated by the STF, to the summoning of Flavio, noting that the former president’s eldest son had ignored “responsibility as a senator of the republic.”

“First, one of the sons of the leader of the criminal organization, Eduardo Bolsonaro, acts in a criminal and treasonous manner against the country itself, including abandoning his parliamentary mandate. Next, the other son of the leader of the criminal organization, Flavio Bolsonaro, insults his country’s judicial system and intends to re-establish coup camps and create social chaos in Brazil, ignoring his responsibility as a Senator of the Republic.”

The children’s actions were central to Bolsonaro’s three legal defeats this year: the imposition of the electronic ankle bracelet in July; House arrest in August; And now pretrial detention.

Eduardo Bolsonaro’s actions in the United States led to the imposition of the first precautionary measures against Bolsonaro, in July, while social media posts by the three older children led to house arrest and then preventive detention, in August and last week.

The main investigation Flavio has faced so far has been the suspicion of a scheme to embezzle salaries in his office, a practice known as “rachadinha.”