The year is over and the outlook is bright: Will Spain be able to continue growing strongly? BBVA Research estimates that yes. The bank’s research service raised the GDP growth forecast for this year to 2026 by a tenth, that is, up to 2.4%, and set a 2% increase for 2027. From recent years with the economy, there has been a boom that has created a million new jobs, the reason for 480 thousand jobs annually, according to the Situación España report presented by the entity. To achieve this, the number of workers will rise to more than 23 million workers for the first time, reaching current records.
GDP numbers are slowing after years of intense growth, but not a forced decline. Few people expected that they would be able to maintain the current footballing rhythm indefinitely, especially when the European environment was not with them. BBVA Research reports a 2.9% improvement at the end of the year, in line with the government, thanks to an increase in internal demand and a reversal. It is a tenth lower than what they estimated in October, but third-quarter GDP data, when Spain recorded growth of 0.6% instead of the 0.7% they had expected, forced them to correct the picture slightly.
It would be better for them to map out the necessary matters for employment in this latter part of the year, as confirmed by last year’s statistics, when last year’s employment quota was destroyed. For this latest stretch, BBVA Research expects that the contribution of domestic demand to growth will remain positive this quarter, while the contribution of external demand will be less negative due to a smaller decline in exports than before and a lower increase in imports than observed in the third quarter.
The labor market will continue to benefit from the increase in immigration – with Spain reaching 50 million inhabitants at the end of next year – “and a marked increase in the participation rate of Spanish workers”, to build on an active population that will grow by 400,000 workers in 2026 as well as in 2027.
The expansion will also be supported by services exports, which will improve by 3.3% and 3.2% in the next few years. The price of energy will not be a problem. “The cost of fuel and electricity will remain relatively low, contributing to the competitiveness of businesses and restoring purchasing power to households,” say economists at BBVA Research, who point to a decline thanks to the rise of renewable energy sources.
Low inflation
Energy behavior will be key to moderating inflation, although its return to normal will remain slow. BBVA Research forecasts offer a growth rate of 2.5% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027 (this year it is 2.65% through November). In any case, this will help a certain recovery of purchasing power, on the ground due to the decrease in expenses, but also due to the increase in suedos. Higher household disposable incomes will support the continuation of good data on private consumption, provided by BBVA research.
An appropriate rate complements monetary policy. The scenario run by analysts is that the ECB will maintain rates at 2% for an extended period, between 12 and 18 months, due to a combination of lower inflation control, modest growth in the eurozone, and uncertainty about the consequences of an increase in defense spending and use of the fund. Infrastructure in Germany. “Monetary policy will be expansionary, which, together with the balance sheets of companies, households and banks, will strengthen financing, especially in favor of investment (6.4% and 4.9% in 2026 and 2027, respectively),” says BBVA Research.
The most expensive villa
The report reveals a more complex panorama in the context of the villa, since a double-digit increase in prices in 2025 amounts to an additional increase of 9% in 2026, “which means excluding part of the potential demand due to the impossibility of fulfilling the payment,” it warns.
This will not mean a decline in sales, which will stabilize at around 725 thousand units per year, with an increase in reversal of 6.2% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027. Sales figures are historically high, but in an environment of good development in employment, an increase in house construction, more immigration and relatively cheap financing, there is no reason to believe so, and if they do not grow more strongly, it is due to a “lack of available resources”. product,” and “increase it,” the document explains.