Flamengo enters the field on Wednesday with the opportunity to confirm its Brazilian title against Ceara in round 37. The numbers reinforce the favoritism between the red and the black. According to data from Bola de Cristal, a tool developed by GLOBO in partnership with UFMG, Team Rio has a 49.38% probability of winning at the Maracanã, a necessary result to secure victory.
But a draw seems to be the second possible outcome of the confrontation: 34.54%. In case of a tie, the red and black team will be the champion by the set of results. The only result that will prevent Flamengo from lifting the trophy at the Maracanã on Wednesday is a win for Ceara, which they have a 16.06% chance of achieving.
A combination of odds and schedule leaves Flamengo very close to the cup. If they win, the team led by Filipe Luis will mathematically guarantee the championship title. If there is a draw, it is possible that the Red and Black will still be champions in the round, but that will depend on Palmeiras not winning against Atlético MG, at the Arena MRF.
In this confrontation, the Sao Paulo team has a 26% chance of winning, while the Minas Gerais team has a 33.4% chance. A draw – the result that eliminates any possibility of Palmeiras winning the title – is the most likely at 40.6%.
Just one victory away from winning the Brazilian Championship after four seasons, Flamengo currently has a 97.2% chance of winning the tournament, compared to 2.8% for Palmeiras. If they do not win against Ceara on Wednesday, the red and black will have another chance to lift the cup: against Mirasol, on Sunday, at the Estadio José María de Campos Maya.