Brazil is the country with the largest economic losses among eight economies analyzed in the study Lost in the transitional phase Brazilpublished by Pearson, a global education and lifelong learning company. The Brazilian edition of the Global Studies Series, launched at the recent World Economic Forum, estimates that the country loses about R$1.08 trillion annually, equivalent to 9% of its GDP, due to failures at so-called turning moments in the business cycle, which include the transition between school and the labor market, job changes and the impact of automation.
The research has already analyzed data from Brazil, Australia, Canada, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom and the United States (as well as the economies of New York and California) and has shown that although all economies are affected by technological and structural changes involving learning and qualification, Brazil is the country that loses the most economic value in these transition phases. In California, which ranks second in the ranking, the impact is equivalent to 4.8% of GDP, almost half the Brazilian loss.
The survey shows that while the largest losses in other economies are caused by automation, the most important factor in Brazil is the shift from one job to another, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the total losses (701 billion Brazilian reais). The study indicates that more than 20% of unemployed Brazilians remain without work for more than two years, with an average duration of 42 weeks, a much higher percentage than that observed in countries such as Canada (18) and the United Kingdom (32).
“The survey results show that Brazil is losing economic value not only because of automation, but because many people are taking too long to reconnect with the labor market,” says Cynthia Nespoli, CEO of Pearson in Brazil. “This delay has a huge cost to the country, in productivity, income and human development.”
According to the study, 32% of Brazilian jobs are at high risk of automation, especially in the industrial and agricultural sectors. At the same time, 24% of young people between the ages of 18 and 24 pose a risk to the economy, as they are described as neither studying nor working, which is one of the highest rates in the world, according to supplementary data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. These factors reinforce the urgent need for policies that combine vocational retraining, support for career transition, and encourage lifelong learning.
“Research shows that the most resilient economies are those that invest in lifelong learning and active transport policies. In Brazil, reducing the average unemployment period by just 20% could generate gains of up to R$140 billion per year,” Cynthia emphasizes. He adds: “Continuous learning is no longer a feature, but rather a strategy to ensure professional relevance in a market increasingly influenced by artificial intelligence and other technologies.”
the Lost in transition It proposes thinking about how governments, companies and educational institutions can reduce the economic cost of changes throughout the career – from the start of a career to retirement – and highlights the importance of aligning education and employment policies in a global scenario of rapid technological and social transformation.
For policymakers, the study suggests greater investments in combating structural unemployment, through vocational employment programs, rapid rehabilitation and reintegration of professionals into the market, as well as strategies to anticipate the effects of automation before it becomes a major source of disruption. Among companies, the study points to actions that enhance workforce flexibility and enhance recruitment processes, by adopting continuous learning strategies.
“Brazil has a young and diverse workforce, with huge potential to lead this transformation,” Nespoli concludes. “The challenge is to connect talent with the right opportunities, supported by education that prepares for the future.”
Series Lost in transition Various national databases were used as sources. In Brazil, statistics came primarily from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and sources from the Ministry of Education (MEC), which supported the analysis. In the USA, for example, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics dominate. These differences indicate that although the categories are aligned, the entries are not identical.
Research losses have been converted to 2024 purchasing power adjusted dollars to allow more accurate comparisons between countries. Purchasing power parity reflects local price differences and better shows the true cost of losses. Despite the common methodology, each economy uses its own sources and adjustments, which requires caution in comparisons. The results should be viewed as heuristics aimed at highlighting structural differences and guiding discussions on policy priorities, especially in the case of Brazil.