Economy Minister Luis Caputo explained The official strategy for adding foreign currency He defended that the government “should buy many reserves,” stressing that the current financial scenario would not only allow dollars to be obtained, but also to be kept without generating monetary tensions.
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In one of the events in front of businessmen, Caputo emphasized that there is a conceptual difference between… “Buying” reserves and “accumulating” reservesEnsuring that inherited debts had prevented them from incurring in the previous months, and that now – with closer access to markets – it would be better to do so in an orderly manner.
Purchase in exchange for accumulation of reserves
The Minister affirmed that “There was never a discussion“As to whether The government must buy foreign currencies And he noticed that “The economic team that bought the largest number of reserves in historyHe admitted that the difficulty lies in assembling it because the country “It has given it a huge debt position on everything, on the market, on importers, on multilateral companiesFor twenty months the priority was meeting payments.
The official stressed that the scenario is now changing: “We are entering the period in which it will be precisely the most feasible to accumulate reserves” thanks to the possibility Debt refinancing. He explained that no country pays debt capital with a fiscal surplus, and that by restoring access to financing, foreign currencies can be purchased without temporary pressures or imbalances in the economy.
Luis Caputo confirmed that banks are offering the country up to 7,000 million US dollars
According to his approach, market access is “important” because Reduces timing anxiety Purchase, because with refinancing the accumulation could be “more convenient and organized for all Argentines.”
Strategy 2026: Money demand and the exchange market
The Minister’s road map for the coming year It depends on two variables: “Increased demand for money and depth of the exchange market“.
Regarding the first point, the intention is to buy dollars as there is demand for pesos, avoid issuing without supporting demand and recreating the phenomenon of offset liabilities, such as the old LEBAC or the quasi-fiscal deficit they inherited – he said – in “10 product points“.
Caputo used an extreme example: If Sam Altman — the creator of OpenIA — invested $25 billion and BCRA bought it, he would have to issue a “35 billion pesos“The market won’t demand it It would generate inflation and then impose sterilization. “We don’t want to make the Argentines go back to this“He insisted.
In addition, he explained that all reserves – even those purchased with pesos – have liabilities attached to them: “TEveryone said: Those are borrowed reserves. Dear colleagues, All reservations have been purchased…When reserves are purchased as compensation, there is always a liability behind it“The exception is when the income comes from the sale of assets or concessions,” he said.
Impact of money demand and market depth
Caputo expected specific numbers and noted that if the monetary base grows by 25% nominally – according to the budget – They can buy about $7,000 million Without sterilization.
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If demand for money rebounds by 1%, another 7 billion in US currency will be added. with Two-point product redemptionThe likely number will rise to 20 thousand or 21 thousand dollars.
Regarding the exchange market, he stressed that a sufficient volume of operations was needed: the market previously operated $600 million per day and today it amounts to about 200 million. “I can’t expect to buy $100 million a day in a market that runs $200“Because,” he explained That would impose an artificial increase From the price of the dollar.
The Minister defended keeping the float scheme within the ranges, due to Argentine fluctuations and The historical effectiveness of this system stable for a long time. “Let us not try to run faster than our legs can give us“, he stated.
The challenges behind the calm dollar, the shortage of reserves and the interest rate of Caputo’s plan at the end of the year
Finally, Caputo confirmed that the country “In better shape than ever” To accumulate reserves without generating inflation or exchange rate fluctuations, he denied rumors about $20 billion in bank loans, describing them as external attempts to generate financial noise.
JZ.