The Argentine authorities are preparing for their return International markets of the bonds after nearly six years, with the hope of issuing debt in early 2026 if conditions continue to develop in its favor, according to sources familiar with the matter.
Regardless of whether they eventually do so or not, the mere fact that they are considering this possibility highlights the fact The size of the change The trend that the country has witnessed over the past two months.
Pablo Ferrari: “The central bank’s reserves are negative, which means they cannot meet their obligations.”
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In September, panic gripped Argentine markets, as investors feared… Financial austerity President Javier Miley will be frustrated if the opposition consolidates control of Congress. The peso fell Bond yields The value of the country’s dollars rose to more than 17%, prompting the Trump administration to send emergency aid to Miley to stem the wave of sales.
The strategy worked. First, the markets Then settled down It rebounded strongly when Miley’s party won more seats in Congress than experts expected in the elections that took place in late October. Yields are now close to 10%, or about six percentage points above US Treasuries. This is close to the level of the Minister of Economy, Louis Caputosignaled to investors that it would be willing to issue bonds, according to people familiar with the matter.
The challenges behind the calm dollar, the shortage of reserves and the interest rate of Caputo’s plan at the end of the year
Argentina was excluded from Market from Which entered into default for the third time this century during the pandemic. Miley, a liberal economist, has made restoring market access by early 2026 one of his main goals since taking office in 2023. This would also give the country an injection of dollars that could be used to pay off foreign debt — Argentina has $4.5 billion due in January and a similar amount in July — and rebuild its economy. Deterioration of reserves of currencies.
“Maybe we’re not that far away” from Argentina returning to the World Cup Global markets“Yields below 10% are the magic number,” said Jorky Urquieta, co-head of emerging markets debt at Neuberger Berman.
The new problem is likely just one step in a series of… Debt operationsAccording to the people of knowledge of the hadiths. Talks are underway with several banks about options that could help reduce spreads and allow Argentina to issue new debt.
Ideas include a buyback that could be used to offer a cash incentive to investors as part of a debt swap, a liability management operation with a buyback to raise up to $5 billion to cover January maturities using importers’ bonds as collateral, and a debt-for-education swap, similar to nature-related deals implemented by Ecuador. All information comes from Familiar people With the discussions, he requested anonymity because the conversations are not public.
Caputo told investors last month that Argentina planned and repurchasing bonds due in 2029 and 2030. He indicated that a full plan will be announced soon, which will include a roadmap to begin accumulating foreign exchange reserves.
The Ministry of Economy did not respond to this Requests for feedback.
Claudio Loser: Argentina has not committed to accumulating reserves, but I do not think it will destroy the program with the International Monetary Fund
Argentina can access the markets now, especially in light of the continued demand for high-yielding emerging market assets. But the government expects a pressure About 100 to 150 basis points in the yield curve, according to people familiar with the plans, so that costs would be closer to what the country’s largest companies are paying, between 7% and 8%.
the Agree to They added that the reform package presented by the new Congress, which will take office on December 10 with Miley’s Libertarian Party being the largest bloc in the House of Representatives, could be the impetus.
Argentina “will go out into the market,” he said. Pramol Dhawan“, head of emerging markets portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co. “It will probably be next year, and they will manage the liabilities.”
Orlando Ferrers on the exchange rate forecast in 2026: “I think it will be a year to accumulate reserves”
The appetite for Argentine debt was evident last weeks. Corporations and counties have sold more than $4 billion in dollar bonds since the Oct. 26 election, compared with just $130 million in the three months before the vote, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
And there’s more on the way. Oil company Vista Energy will be looking for it Reopen your bonds on Wednesday and almost all provinces will evaluate the release soon. Santa Fe County is holding meetings with investors ahead of the planned release, and Chubut will also work on the process. The source added that if Argentina succeeds in liquidating its 2029 and 2030 bonds, riskier names such as Chaco could hit the market.
Caputo’s plans to sell new debt, which were expected early last year, were always met with some disapproval Doubt. At the time, yields on some Argentine securities were approaching 20% when measured back-to-worst, a metric that assumes various scenarios, but not default.
Even amid renewed optimism, Doubts about Argentina’s views. According to some analysts, the country still needs to increase its dollar reserves, and for that it must adjust the exchange rate system that Caputo and Milley agreed to maintain.
Even if the country achieves a buyback to cover January payments, holds a tender for bonds maturing in 2029 and 2030 and regains market access, it will still need “significant” dollar purchases, Barclays economist Evan Stampolsky and strategist Jason Kane said in a report released this week.
“Easing the exchange rate” or “discontented economic activity”: the government’s dilemma in the face of a shortage of reserves
“A Huge improvement “Liquidity requires aggressive purchases of dollars, which we believe is unlikely under this exchange rate regime,” they wrote.
The last time Argentina returned to global credit markets, it did so in a big way. The country sold $16.5 billion worth of bonds, setting a single-day record Developing country. Investors bid up $68.6 billion worth of debt, and the returns were lower than for similarly rated securities.
Dozens of other cases would follow, including A 100 bonus years, before falling into default again, for the ninth time since its independence in 1816.
JZ.