Economic Ernesto Matos He explained in a conversation with Channel E The combination of limited dollar liquidity, pressure from the International Monetary Fund and declining agricultural liquidity predicts months of strong volatility.
Matos He analyzed the complex scenario of reserves and exchange tensions faced by the government. He noted that the IMF had made major changes: “It is clear that the IMF has adjusted the reserve target“, even allowing for the negative reserves target of 2025. As he explained, that target would be around $3 billion, which offers additional margin but also greater pressure.
Controversy over Berkeley and the shortage of dollars
Matos He stated that the recent Berkeley report generated internal tension: “It made the government a little uncomfortable.“, where he explained that the dollars obtained were not used to repay debts in foreign currency, but mainly in pesos. According to the economist, official financial reports have already shown that “The most important thing about the cancellations was related to debts in pesos“.
Regarding international liquidity, he explained that the administration turned to the US Treasury to obtain financial support, but he explained: “The government faces a liquidity problem in hard currency, not pesos“He noted that since the beginning of the administration, the peso debt system has been maintained with the support of ANSES and Banco Nación, something he considers manageable as long as maturities continue to be renewed.
But he highlighted a crucial fact: “The November settlement was $790 million, the lowest level in ten years“, which makes it difficult to accumulate reserves. He pointed out that in the previous month they received 7,000 million, of which 1,500 million were cancelled, which could have mitigated the blow of December.
Exchange rate, imports and currency depreciation expectations
Regarding the exchange rate considered by Berkeley, Matos He was categorical:They are talking about the price of the dollar between 1,700 and 2,000 pesos“, which could mean a strong economic impact. He warned that the rise in the cost of the dollar will exacerbate the industrial recession: “The businessman is already laying people off and importing; It stopped manufacturingHe described, comparing the scenario to “Hunger Games“.
Regarding the possibility of a new devaluation of the currency during the month of March, he said: “The evaluation should theoretically come in March“, estimating an adjustment of between 20% and 30%.
When asked about a possible summer in the dollar, Matos He explained that the dynamic is already underway: “Let’s see, first of all, its value has already been reducedHe detailed that float bands allow for gradual increases:They can make accurate valuations: 1500, 1600, 1700… but that’s a devaluation.“.
In his view, the market faces three simultaneous factors: seasonal pressure due to holidays, reduced agricultural monetization and expectations of currency depreciation. All of this could accelerate demand for the dollar in the coming months.