he Exchange market Reaffirms the calm tone of the beginning of December. Operators rule that a similar dynamic will be observed in the coming weeks, of relative stability with a downward slope, thanks to the seasonal increase in demand for the peso, the arrival of a good agricultural harvest and the extraordinary supply of dollars by companies and provinces after strong issuances of debt securities abroad.
Moreover, Official exchange rate It stays very close to the ceiling of the flotation bar, “ensuring” that it doesn’t have room to rise much higher. Yesterday it fell to $1,453 in the wholesale sector, just 4.1% below the upper limit ($1,512.5), which if reached, the central bank would go out and sell foreign currencies to cap, as specified in the chart.
Analysts he consulted iProfessional They are very emphatic in discouraging the purchase of dollars at this time. They propose not to demand foreign currency because they consider that the exchange rate, at least in the short term, will not register upward pressures, but on the contrary, and they prefer to position themselves in financial instruments with interest rates in the local currency or other assets offered by the local market.
They do not see the appeal in the dollar
“Don’t buy dollars. There’s no appeal in buying dollar To cover. Upside margin is rare due to the proximity to the floating range cap and in December there are several driving factors that indicate the exchange rate should be bearish. “Right now, it’s not the dollar, but peso interest rates, which can deliver very good returns in the long term,” says Martin Genero, an analyst at Clave Bursátil.
Pablo Lazzatti, Insider Finance CEO agrees that at the moment everything indicates that there will not be a significant increase in the exchange rate. He estimates it could at most temporarily approach the ceiling of the floating range after December 10, in this case driven by terminal volatility due to noise in Congress, but he does not see it as necessary to dollarize portfolios at this time.
“We think it’s in the short term Exchange rate can remain stable. Above all, considering that December is the month in which the demand for pesos is very high due to the payment of bonuses and the number of transactions that have to be made in the local currency. We could even see a decline from current levels. “Today I will choose to make the interest rate in pesos,” says Ian Colombo, a financial advisor at Cocos Gold.
Colombo confirms that Wallet dollarization This could happen in the following months, when seasonal factors disappear, boost demand for the US currency and finally push the price higher. Currently, and in light of the perspective of relative stability with a downward tendency in the exchange rate in the coming weeks, it tends towards the interest rates offered by financial instruments in the local currency.
In pesos instead of dollars
“In the short term, there may be some Inflationary pressure. Above all, in what was in November and what is to come in December and January. These are the months in which important price adjustments occurred in the economy, as in the case of transportation and meat, for example, the prices of which rose. We believe that the price index may record higher changes during these months than expected.”
The advisor finds it appropriate to take advantage of short-term financial instruments that capture the greatest amount of variation he expects for the inflation index for November (official data will be published next week), December and January. Among them, “TZXM6” stands out. National treasure Which expires at the end of March and causes the price index to vary plus 5% or 6% of the annual nominal rate (TNA).
“There is continued uncertainty about the future Exchange rate system (These are legitimate questions that the market cannot fully comprehend) It produces a large premium in the peso interest rate compared to dollar-denominated assets. A concrete example: A Boncap (dollar bond) with a fixed rate maturing in April 2027 offers a potential rate of return of more than 16% in dollars, while a Bopreal (dollar bond) maturing six months later yields only 8%,” says Genero.
Genero believes that with the official exchange rate approaching the ceiling of the single floating range “danger zone” For positions in pesos, they are short-term (less than three months), because in case the exchange rate jumps or the price accelerates to the upper limit (unlikely, but possible), the ultra-short instrument will not have time to recover against the dollar.
Instead, he asserts: “The further we move forward in time, the more time there is.” Exchange rates Tie Of the fixed rate is comfortably above the floating band cap and in 2027 those Tie Very far from the upper limit, which comfortably doubles Bopreal’s return rate.
“For this reason, we see the most value in long Boncaps. Especially in… “T30A7”Which expires in April 2027. This security matures sufficiently after the presidential election that year and provides a very high potential return. For somewhat more conservative profiles, they can be supplemented with the CER pair, “TZXA7”, which averages a fixed rate plus inflation and achieves a strong position in any exchange scenario.