The American bank JP Morgan considered in its latest report that… It should be a “priority” For Javier Miley’s government, it is important to buy international reserves, mainly if it seeks to avoid exchange rate tensions during the remaining two years of its term.
The organization also expects that Argentina will be able to regain access to the international debt market next year Refinancing payments For private sector bondholders in foreign currency.
Luis Caputo revealed the government’s strategy to accumulate reserves in 2026
The authority stressed that “the lesson for 2026 is clear: strengthening reserves must be the priority, and strengthening the country’s defenses before the decisive general elections in 2027,” coinciding with the warning of local analysts who point out the fragility of the central bank’s reserve system and the risks it entails in the face of political fluctuations. The ultimate volatility rings Internal or external.
“Those who defend the exchange rate band correctly point to its role in moderating the transmission of currency depreciation to prices,” JP Morgan stressed. “The dollar has risen 21% in three months, but monthly inflation has barely moved.” “It appears that inflation will continue to decline.”The bank stressed.
On the other hand, the US Bank expects the Treasury Department to strengthen liability management processes to ease debt payments by 2027, with the aim of “Market access restored in 2026“.
At the same time, he stressed that the possibility of accumulating reserves will largely depend on The country’s ability to reissue debtThis is something he sees as more feasible in the second half of next year.
The government’s plan to accumulate reserves in 2026
Economy Minister Luis Caputo explained The official strategy for adding foreign currency He defended that the government “should buy many reserves,” stressing that the current financial scenario would not only allow dollars to be obtained, but also to be kept without generating monetary tensions.
Pablo Ferrari: “The central bank’s reserves are negative, which means they cannot meet their obligations.”
In one of the events in front of businessmen, Caputo emphasized that there is a conceptual difference between… “Buying” reserves and “accumulating” reservesEnsuring that inherited debts had prevented it from continuing in the previous months, now – with closer access to markets – it would be better to do this in an organized manner.
Strategy 2026: Money demand and the exchange market
The Minister’s road map for the coming year It depends on two variables: “Increased demand for money and depth of the exchange market“.
Regarding the first point, the intention is to buy dollars as there is demand for pesos, avoid issuing without supporting demand and recreating the phenomenon of offset liabilities, such as the old LEBAC or the quasi-fiscal deficit they inherited – he said – in “10 product points“.
The challenges behind the calm dollar, the shortage of reserves and the interest rate of Caputo’s plan at the end of the year
Caputo used an extreme example: If Sam Altman — the creator of OpenIA — invested $25 billion and BCRA bought it, he would have to issue a “35 billion pesos“The market won’t demand it It would generate inflation and then impose sterilization. “We don’t want to make the Argentines go back to this“He insisted.
In addition, he explained that all reserves – even those purchased with pesos – have liabilities attached to them: “TEveryone said: Those are borrowed reserves. Dear colleagues, All reservations have been purchased…When reserves are purchased as compensation, there is always a liability behind it“The exception is when the income comes from the sale of assets or concessions,” he said.
JZ.