A recent report issued by the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin) warns of the danger of criminal organizations’ moves in the 2026 elections.
The intervention of these groups in politics and public administration comes as an extension of the diversification of illicit businesses – which are no longer limited to drug trafficking – into the formal economy, whether through the sale of adulterated or smuggled products, money laundering, financial investments, and participation in public contracts.
Recent federal police operations, such as Fim da Linha, Carbono Oculto, Poço de Lobato, and Compliance Zero, have revealed the criminal architecture that underpins this nefarious influence.
The control of transportation concessions, money laundering through so-called financial technology, tax fraud, and vulnerabilities in the financial system constitute a scenario of overlap between legitimate and illicit funds, where politics can be captured through the resources allocated to parties and campaigns.
Risks include sham nominations, ghost investors, lack of consolidated oversight of the source of funds and sponsorships, gaps in expenditure regulation, and inadequate inspection structures for the scale and complexity of election processes.
If organized crime penetrates economic activity and the state, it amplifies its ability not only to influence election outcomes, but also to shape decisions and seize public policy.
Operation Zarjun, which launched in September, provides a glimpse into this shared polarization. The investigation into a corruption scheme between leaders of the Comando Vermelho faction and several public officials in Rio de Janeiro, which is still ongoing, has led to the arrest of State Rep. TH Goias (MDB) and the President of the Rio de Janeiro Legislative Assembly, Rodrigo Basilar (Uniao Brasil).
The response requires institutional coordination and adherence to good practices already recommended by international organizations, such as the United Nations, the OECD and the International Financial Action Task Force (FATF).
Among them are enhanced financial intelligence, in-depth tracking of corporate ultimate beneficiaries and donors, continuous auditing of election campaigns, real-time transparency of public contracts, and effective accountability by courts of candidates and parties backed by illicit resources.
Integrated risk mitigation efforts are essential to maintaining election integrity and, ultimately, confidence in democracy.
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