At times Marco Polo (thirteenth century), China It was the most advanced economy in the world. There the merchants acquired very high value goods such as silk, fine porcelain, precious stones and high quality manufactured products such as paper, gunpowder, inks, paint, fans, compasses and prints which they took to Europe.
It was then closed to the world by the Edict of Hygin (1434) and lay dormant for centuries. Only with Deng Xiaoping (1978) Its extraordinary growth occurred thanks to industrial expansion and rural-urban migration. State capitalism lifted 750 million people out of poverty, and after 30 years of growth at 10% per year, per capita GDP rose from $400 to $15,000.
In 2001, Bill Clinton It facilitated their entry World Trade Organization (World Trade Organization) to open North American exports, but the result was the opposite, because China is no longer as far away as it was in the time of Marco Polo. Its massive production floods the West with high-tech products, as well as textiles, shoes and household appliances. In 2009, it became the world’s first exporter and second importer. If yesterday it was competing with cheap labor and imitation technology, it is now a leader in applied research and development, such as in artificial intelligence, robotics, quantum computing, and refining biomaterials.
Competition from China, fueled by government subsidies and the “Made in China 2025” policy, has shaken the foundations of European industry, which has been caught off guard by rising energy costs and decarbonisation rules. This leads to factory closures, job cuts and relocation in key sectors such as solar panel manufacturing, electric cars and batteries, rubber and tires, textiles, toys, shoes and steel (“China Shock 2.0”). in France It aims to nationalize ArcelorMittal, the Indian steel giant that runs the old Osinor (France) factories; Aceralia (Spain) and Irbid (Luxembourg) to save it from bankruptcy. Spain and Portugal It maintains its growth due to the greater weight of services (tourism) in its production structure.
The solution is not to sit and wait until 2030, hoping that agriculture, minerals, and energy will provide the dollars needed to maintain unsustainable public and private jobs. The only effective tool is to equalize opportunities through structural reforms
USA It has suffered a similar impact, albeit with different connotations, given the geopolitical importance of Chinese penetration in that country and in the region. As is known, Donald Trump Imposing heavy tariffs to balance US trade and then negotiating with China from that position. Experts recommend avoiding protectionism caused by nostalgia, investing in innovation, re-education for new jobs (“reskilling”) and creating alliances with friendly countries.
In contrast to Europe or the United States, Argentina lacks a currency and cannot issue pesos due to the risk of hyperinflation if the public does not increase demand for it.. It cannot allow financial imbalance because, even without issuance, it can rush to the shelves, accelerating the circulation of money. A long history of serial non-compliance prevents the country from reducing risks, making it difficult to “roll over” its debt and defer much-needed investments to equip, modernize and reconvert. That black record, which does not affect Europe or neighboring countries, will remain stuck on our foreheads as long as we do not acknowledge it. That past is the responsibility of the entire nation, not the responsibility of the person who assumed the presidency two years ago..
The United States and the European Union are large markets that are trying to protect industries with large economies, which until yesterday were competitive and now face the challenges of the eastern explosion. This is not the case in Argentina, where the manufacturing network is designed for a small market and whose industries, lacking export capacity, require dollars but do not generate them, leading to a balance of payments crisis. Our country does not have the support of the European Union, but rather has the burden of Mercosur, an imperfect customs union that keeps it behind. In light of the fragile financial balance, it also does not have the necessary tools to promote companies of the appropriate size for domestic consumption in the face of cheap imports from any origin. With or without China, reconversion is essential to generate foreign exchange, maintain jobs, and promote growth.
The solution is not to sit and wait until 2030, hoping that agriculture, minerals, and energy will provide the dollars needed to maintain unsustainable public and private jobs. The only effective tool, here and now, is Leveling the playing field through cost reduction and “devaluation without devaluation” through provincial tax reform and other labor reform, which allows for increased registered employmentReducing non-payroll costs, eliminating the industry of catastrophic provisions and introducing the concepts of flexibility and productivity. This is a challenge for everyone, not just him Javier Miley.
There are 4 million public employees in Argentina, including 3 million provincial level employees and half a million municipal employees, in addition to 1.5 million non-contributory pensions.
Argentina has 4 million public employees, including 3 million provincial employees and half a million municipal employees, in addition to 1.5 million non-contributory pensions. The “political class” includes 1,525 deputies, including 329 nationals and 1,196 members from 24 local legislative bodies. In addition, there are deliberative councils in 2,234 municipalities in the country. This huge amount of salaries and pensions puts pressure on local coffers, and makes it difficult to achieve any reduction in distorting taxes and abusive rates that affect competitiveness. Another challenge for everyone, not just Millie.
Argentina is not a confederation of independent states but a federal state, and the distribution of powers set out in the national constitution aims to better manage the common interests of 47 million people and not create “quintets” at the expense of collective progress. Just as the rulers ask the nation for “what is theirs,” they also have an obligation to provide transparency regarding their expenditures, reduce redundant staff, and eliminate nepotism, direct recruitment, private superannuation, teacher abuse, construction company registration and forced membership. In short, they must work to reduce costs and eliminate regulations that slow down the overall development process. In particular, addressing the issue of replacing gross income with another formula that does not imply cascading taxes, abolishing the medieval stamp tax, and directing municipalities not to impose interest-free rates.
The disgraceful negotiations for funds and fees in the Buenos Aires legislature are evidence of what needs to change. Including the creation of six new director positions in Governorate Bank Which are used Axel Kiselov To win the opposition votes when this bank should be privatized.
No change will be viable without collective awareness of the seriousness of the diagnosis and the necessity of resolving it. This does not constitute a challenge to Millie, but rather a challenge to all politicians and the ruling class.
This huge amount of salaries and pensions puts pressure on local coffers, and makes it difficult to achieve any reduction in distorting taxes and abusive rates that affect competitiveness. Another challenge for everyone, not just Millie
If there was trust, an influx of capital would change this situation in a jiffy, as the Argentines have $400 billion offshore or under the mattress. A change in expectations requires all relevant actors, whose unexpected blows incite mistrust, to make a sincere commitment not to go back to their old tricks. It is not an individual battle for the president, whether he wins or loses the ballot game. It is not a debate that we watch from the balcony with the indifference of those who will not be affected, or with partial bias towards those who want – or suit them – to be right.
If Miley (or anyone else) is defeated by 80 years of special interests, we will continue without currency, without credit, without reserves, and without the ability to compete in an unforgiving world. It was not Miley who failed to meet the challenge, but all Argentines for not taking responsibility for our past.