Heavy rains that have lashed South and Southeast Asia in recent weeks have demonstrated the region’s vulnerability to the climate crisis. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam and Sri Lanka are causing floods and landslides that have left up to 1,300 deaths and a thousand missing. A series of three tropical cyclones, coinciding with the monsoon season, dumped large amounts of rain not seen in decades, destroying essential infrastructure and forcing hundreds of thousands of people to relocate. Millions of affected people now face shortages of drinking water, power outages and uncertainty about whether they can return to their homes.
Experts say categorically that climate change is driving climate events of unprecedented magnitude in Asia, the region most vulnerable on the planet to sudden rises in water, which in turn exceeds the government’s ability to respond. However, other factors have also intensified the impact of these floods, such as deforestation, deficiencies in protection systems or lack of funds to improve emergency preparedness.
Asia is seeing temperatures rise twice as fast as the global average, according to the World Meteorological Organization. Furthermore, a report by the Intergovernmental Panel of Experts on Climate Change concludes that as temperatures continue to rise, the south and southeast of the continent will see more intense rainfall and a “marked increase” in flooding in monsoon regions. These analysts expect coastal cities in the region to record “significant increases” in average annual economic losses due to flooding.
As the World Meteorological Organization states, the formation of tropical storms in latitudes near Ecuador (outside the areas where they normally occur) and monsoons with increasingly violent rainfall is “something we have not seen much before,” but it is now an “unusual and worrying” pattern. Claire Nullis, spokeswoman for this UN agency, said this week to the media in Ginebra that the displacement of hurricanes in particular exacerbated the damage.
This is what happened in Indonesia, which has become the epicenter of the tragedy in recent days. In the seven provinces of Aceh, Sumatra and West Sumatra, several villages remain completely isolated due to the collapse of bridges and roads last week. The authorities deployed helicopters to reach areas that rescuers could not reach on the ground. The force of the currents destroyed homes and caused landslides on deforested slopes. There are more than 700 dead, hundreds missing, and the size of the affected population exceeds one million, which is an average number of people.
In Sri Lanka, the situation is equally critical. Hurricane impact Detwah This has led to what UNICEF calls a “fast-moving humanitarian emergency,” that is, a crisis that is developing so quickly that it exceeds the capacity to respond immediately. More than 1.4 million people, including 275,000 minors, have seen their lives changed by the devastation caused by violent storms. Furthermore, the deterioration of drinking water networks and the destruction of informal shelters increase the risk of disease outbreaks.
The country, whose economy has been weak for a long time, is facing difficulties in restoring basic services and mobilizing funds for reconstruction. UNICEF insists that “the needs exceed the resources available at this moment.”
On the other hand, Vietnam and the Philippines caused months of exceptional rainfall, which claimed hundreds of lives, caused ongoing damage to essential infrastructure, and flooded historical and tourist enclaves. At the end of October, a weather station in central Vietnam recorded 1,739 millimeters of water in 24 hours, data that is being studied by the World Meteorological Organization and which, if verified, would set a record for the entire Northern Hemisphere.
Thailand has also witnessed its own episode of devastation. November’s rains, which were particularly heavy in the south of the country, destroyed key infrastructure and left a failure in emergency response systems, which the executive itself admitted. The first calculations indicate losses of millions of dollars in the agricultural sector, which represents a strong blow to a country with a very weak economy.
UN agencies insist that these events cannot be explained in isolation. They point out that warming the atmosphere increases the air’s ability to retain moisture, leading to more intense rainfall. Furthermore, you should be aware that this trend will continue to increase as temperatures rise.
Heating of the region’s oceans (also above the global average, according to the World Meteorological Organization) brings more energy and moisture into the atmosphere, increasing the likelihood of more intense storms and much larger discharges. While scientists caution that it is still not possible to attribute every specific cycle to climate change, there is only a strong consensus that increases in temperatures increase the frequency and intensity of these weather events.
This downward trend has been exacerbated this year by the simultaneous presence of La Niña (the phenomenon that occurs when cold in the central Pacific pushes heat to the west and pushes back monsoon rains in Southeast Asia) and a negative Indian Ocean dipole (this warmer water is normal around Indonesia, attracting moisture and intensifying rain). These natural grazers cannot reach their highest point at the same time because they come from different ocean basins, respond to their circulating grazers and must produce at different times. Its competition increases the possibility of more violent rains and perhaps more destructive storms.
A blow to the economy
The economic consequences of these weather events in the region are enormous. In 2024, monsoon floods will cause $25 million in damage in the Asia-Pacific region, according to a study by insurance company Aon, a figure that could be surpassed by growth in 2025.
Currently, Vietnam estimates its losses to exceed $3,000 million this year; In Thailand, damage from November’s floods could cause up to a tenth of annual gross domestic product, while Indonesia records an average annual loss of $1,370 million due to disasters, a figure experts fear will rise this year.
Despite the growing urgency, the international response is progressing slowly. During the November UN climate change conference in Brazil, countries promised to triple adaptation resources and set a target of mobilizing up to $1.3 billion annually in climate finance for 2035. This commitment was accepted as a step forward, but still falls short of the demands of the most vulnerable countries, such as funding in the form of grants to help them cope with increasingly costly disasters (rather than loans, which increase their debt levels further) or further reductions in fossil fuel emissions.