he Official dollar It runs on Friday, December 5 at $1,470, at the Banco Nación board. In the wholesale sector, the coin is trading at $1,444. As for the fiscal dollar, cash with settlement is selling for $1,511 (+0.1%), and MEP is $1,468 (-0.1%). Finally, in the informal sector, blue is trading at $1,430.
Tensions have returned to the Argentine exchange market after a series of signals that collectively revived doubts about the strength of the central bank and the real margin to maintain the current exchange rate strategy. In the midst of an economic program showing progress on fiscal and inflationary issues, an issue emerged that had been the real Achilles’ heel of the scheme for several months: Lack of international reserves.
This concern arises not only from the difficult statements issued by the Central Bank, but also from the diagnoses of international organizations and global financial bodies that closely follow all the country’s movements. During the past few days, International Monetary Fund He issued a clear warning about the need to accelerate the accumulation of foreign currencies. Global banks indicated that the central bank’s net position is worse than it was at the end of 2023. Local consulting firms detected a continuing deterioration in net reserves and unusual movements in the futures market.
This accumulation of information has brought the dollar back to the center of the scene. The market is beginning to wonder whether the Fed has sufficient tools to maintain exchange stability, especially in the face of the strict maturity schedule of 2025-2026. The discussion is no longer limited to just the value of the dollar today How much should it be worth? In a scenario where the reserve cushion looks thinner and demand for coverage could be reactivated at any time.
The IMF points to weaknesses: dollars are missing and targets will not be met
The first call for attention was from the International Monetary Fund itself during its recent press conference. There is a spokesperson Julie Cusack He praised the decline in inflation and the improvement in social indicators, but lit a red light on the external front.
Cusack stated that Argentina must act”A more ambitious path to reserve accumulation” To strengthen its stability and restore access to financial markets. The phrase was not accidental: within the organization it was already assumed that the country He will not reach the reserve goal By the end of the year, even after this requirement was reduced by US$5 billion during the first review of the program.
The International Monetary Fund believes that without sufficient cash reserves, the economy is exposed to external shocks, political tensions, or sudden movements in the exchange rate. For this reason, while the organization appreciates the progress made on fiscal and monetary issues, it warns that the success of the program depends on quickly rebuilding the central bank’s ability to intervene when necessary.
Kozak herself has avoided confirming this, but everything indicates that it will be granted Another concession Due to failure to achieve the reserve goal. In fact, in Washington, the Council is already supposed to grant a new pardon, with the support of the White House and the US Treasury Secretary.
The puzzle of the swap with the United States and its impact on reserves
Beyond non-compliance, there is a critical factor that could change the landscape: it A swap worth $20 billion Agreed with the United States. A portion of this amount – approximately US$800 million – has already been used to pay off the Fund itself.
What is still unclear is whether this swap can be counted as part of international reserves. In response to a question about the issue, Kozak explained that the IMF would apply its usual technical framework for analyzing instruments of this type, but avoided specifying whether the swap would eventually be recognized in numbers.
Without this approval, Argentina will face future targets Fewer “accountable” reserves. Too much, which will make it difficult to maintain the exchange program without modifications. In addition, the Treasury Secretary has not yet disclosed the technical details of the agreement, which complicates its formal evaluation by the Fund.
There is market speculation that even if the swap is partially recognised, the easing will be temporary, because the country needs real dollars to maintain stability. Currently, those dollars are not arriving at the expected pace.
Barclays complicates the picture: net reserves are worse than in 2023
An analysis by the investment bank has been added to the IMF warning Barclayswhich was conclusive: Current net reserves are lower than they were in December 2023.
According to his calculations, at the beginning of the government net reserves existed – 11,000 million dollarswhile today they are located near – 16,000 million US dollarsEven after the foreign currency purchases announced by the central bank.
Barclays explains that liquid reserves exist 28 billion dollarsbut within this total there is $16 billion in bank depositswhich is completely unusable. By adjusting for risk, real liquidity barely arrives 23 billion dollars.
The most alarming fact is that debt maturities between 2026 and 2027 exceed 33 billion dollars Between payments to the IMF and private creditors. Even using all the country’s liquid reserves It was unable to cover those obligationsThis increases financial risks and fuels uncertainty about exchange rates.
Net reserves at a minimum and movements in futures contracts
Meanwhile, a local consulting firm Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) It provided updated data showing a deeper deterioration. According to their estimates, Net international reserves (RIN) fell to – 2,716 million US dollars Following BOPREAL Series 3 payment of over US$1,000 million.
Moreover, the accumulation of reserves since the end of 2024 amounts to – 12,675 million US dollarsalso – 15,175 million US dollars If the swap with the US is discounted. Both numbers Too far From a goal – 1000 million US dollars established by the International Monetary Fund for this period.
The Consumer Price Index also warned of this Treasury deposits in dollars Inside the central bank they barely fell 108 million US dollarsThis is a very low level that limits the government’s operational capacity to handle instant payments.
Another key piece of information: The PPI has detected movements that suggest the BCRA might do just that It again intervened in the futures marketThis has not been seen clearly for a long time. The decline in contracts, the jump in open interest, and the sudden drop in trading volume reinforce this hypothesis.
What could happen to the dollar if the stock of reserves is not rebuilt?
The question now dominating the money tables is simple: How sustainable is the exchange rate calm without further reservations? To date, the exchange rate has remained stable thanks to a combination of exchange bands, import control, increased peso demand, and BCRA purchases. But without a significant improvement in reserves, this stability loses its anchor.
The IMF has already warned that boosting foreign currency stocks is essential to sustain the program. Barclays indicated that net bookings are at worse levels than they were a year ago. The Producer Price Index showed evidence that depletion is continuing.
If the country cannot rebuild the dollar, risks are increasing in the market Forward projections And pressure on futures contracts, fiscal dollars and even the official exchange rate.
It is not a matter of anticipating an imminent leap, but of recognizing that external fragility Increases the sensitivity of the dollar Against any political, commercial or financial shock.