- Winners and losers
- Demand and imports
In recent weeks, it has been announced Business closures and layoffs. Some sectors are affected more than others, however Focus on industry and consumption.
The most useful thing to know who benefited and who lost is to look back. “By looking at the impact on the INDEC on an annual basis, you can see which sectors benefit from the model.He explained Luciano Patrocco, By Eco Joe.
Winners and losers
Observing the average variance for the first nine months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2023, an overall increase of 2.4% is observed. he agricultural It was he who grew the most (45.1%) when recovering from drought in 2023. building The sector with the lowest decline (-14.2%) was affected by the cessation of public works.
Sectors more closely linked to domestic demand were also hit hard, e.g industry (-9.5%) and commerce (-4.8%), while energy (15.7%) and Financial intermediation (16.8%) are among the top gainers.
“How do you explain? Are these differences 2.4% of the general level? To answer it, you have to look at your own OccurrencePatrocco explained the contribution of each sector to the variation in the general level of the INDEC activity index.
“On the positive path Agriculture alone explains 2.4 percentage points (the same as activity growth), While taxes, sector active and Financial Explanation 2.2 p In general. the Industry, commerce and constructionOn the other hand, it contributes negatively by 2.8 percentage points as a whole. As for the rest of the sectors with lower contributions, they supplement the amount to achieve growth of 2.4%.”
Economy Magazine made a similar comparison, given the influence of financial intermediation, especially in the recent INDEC measure. They conclude that since December 2024, economic activity has grown by 1%, but… If you exclude financial intermediation, the increase will be zero. “This sector not only drives the growth chart, but also acts as a major statistical driver for the EMAE region,” explained advisor Miguel Quigel.
Demand and imports
The alternative to knowing the winners is analysis value chains, He pointed out Martin Kallosfrom Epyca Consultores: “There are mineral sectors that suffer from problems and other sectors that do not. For example, those who focus on hydrocarbons or mining have a future perspective.
Companies that supply household appliances or cars, or sectors related to the local market, are concentrated in the opposite direction. “The question ultimately is within the global value chainWhat links are intended to sell to whom?
Kallos explained that what then determines the survival of some sectors is the entity that supplies them. He added: “There’s little room.” Furthermore, the main demand for some winning sectors, such as energy exports, may be one-off and then for maintenance, citing the Vaca Muerta South pipeline as an example.
News of a factory closing whirlpool It has captured national attention and joins other closures, layoffs or layoffs in previous weeks at companies such as Essen, Georgalos, Yaguar, Fravega and La Suipachense, among others.
«Production of home appliances sectorWhere home appliance manufacturers are located, At historical lows: Similar to those that occurred in the middle of last year and mid-2020, 23% below average between 2016 and 2023, With the exception of 2020,” they pointed out from Analytica, and explained that this does not necessarily respond to a decline in demand, as sales of refrigerators and washing machines are at their highest levels since 2020, but rather responds to the opening of imports.
““Imports of refrigerators and washing machines are at historic highs in real terms, with cumulative annual increases through October of 387.1% and 924.2%, respectively.” They pointed out.
The industrial sector is one of the main sectors affected by the situation and reforms.
According to data from the Study Center of the Argentine Industrial Union (CEU-UIA), sector A Stagnation in production.
“So far this yearIndustrial activity about 10% They indicated that it is lower than the same period in 2022 and 2023.
The impact does not lack heterogeneity within the sector. While some like Mills and the automobile industry benefited from agriculturethe Import inputs and credit, Others Partially recovered. These are the elements Food or pharmaceutical productsIt is strongly linked to domestic consumption, and is considered essential, with less impact than imported ones.
Meanwhile, automobile production was at 2022 levels, but its dynamism declined in the third quarter due to higher interest rates.
Inputs from construction, metallurgy, textiles, steel, rubber, plastics and beverages lead the declines.
These sectors are also the main job generators, along with construction and trade. In the first seven months of 2025, the industry lost more than 12,000 jobs, at least 1,700 per month, the UIA reported. Since August 2023, the sector has seen a decrease of 48,000 formal jobs, while the total private sector has lost 160,000 jobs.