Jair Bolsonaro’s decision to “pass the baton of leadership” to his son Flavio, who on Friday began presenting himself as a household name for the presidential race, is more a way to remove Michel Bolsonaro from this race than an actual confirmation that it is the son 01 who will put his name on the ballot in October 2026.
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This is an assessment shared by many of the former president’s allies with whom I spoke, as well as what the movement has been proposing in recent days within the Bolsonaro clan. Even among allies of Governor Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), who is supposedly the failed candidate, Jair Bolsonaro’s movement is seen as a reaction to Michel’s recent attack to take over the clan’s political legacy.
“It’s all because Michel moves too much,” a person close to the São Paulo governor told me on Friday.
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The former First Lady’s position of publicly objecting to the formulation of an alliance between the Bolsonarians and Cerro Gomez in Ceará for the state government in 2026, which caused an uproar on the right, was the landmark event that anticipated this decision.
“Allying with the man who stands against the greatest leader of the right? This is not enough. We will stand and work to elect Jirao,” she said at the launch of the candidacy of Senator Eduardo Girao of Novo.
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In response, the head of the local Liberal Party, Andre Fernández, responded by saying that the coalition had been authorized by Jair Bolsonaro himself. Flavio followed the same line, even calling the former First Lady an authoritarian.
Days later, Flavio visited his father in prison and came out to discuss the situation. He said: “I told him (Jair Bolsonaro) that I had already settled things with Michelle, and I apologized to her, and so did she.”
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In private conversations, Bolsonaro’s allies have already said that embracing Michel would serve as a kind of “compensation” for the fact that Jair himself will warn her that she is off the presidential track.
Moreover, they considered that the former president was under pressure from his children, depressed and needed to present a name (and a new reality) on the political scene quickly before Michelle grows up too much – as she is considered in Hizb ut-Tahrir and among her children as an “uncontrollable” personality.
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Once that move was made, it was now up to Flávio to occupy the space his father had opened up for him. However, whether this will turn into a presidential nomination, only time will tell.