when Donald Trump He warns that Europe faces “cultural erasure” due to mass migration, and not only revives a fringe conspiracy theory, but elevates it into a national security doctrine.
The rhetoric of the “Great Replacement” (the idea of deliberately replacing the West) represents a real threat to democracy today.
But not because it is true, but because it mobilizes discontent among voters.
In this context, Spain must focus on the data to reject conspiracy panic. But also without denying the real problems.
The numbers are telling. since Pedro Sanchez He became president in 2018, and Spain’s population has increased by 2.7 million.
But here lies the disturbing irony: All this growth comes from immigration.
The number of Spaniards born in Spain to Spanish parents decreased by 261,546 people. Today, nearly one in five residents (19.8%) was born outside our borders.
There is no secret plan here. There are simple demographic calculations: declining national birth rates, The demographic gap is filled by migration flows.
Immigration to Spain, as a whole, is an economically inevitable and culturally enriching phenomenon.
But intellectual honesty also requires recognizing that the rapid integration of some 2.7 million people in seven years will lead to friction.
The pressure on housing is fierce. Some neighborhoods have become isolated. Regarding crime and gender violence, the overrepresentation of foreigners in statistics is not propaganda. But it is a reality that shames the vast majority of honest immigrants.
Our 1978 Constitution defines an open, non-military democracy, in accordance with the principle of the Constitutional Court.
That is, it does not close in on itself. But he has faith in his integrative ability.
But openness has natural limits. Democracies that exceed their ability to integrate by facilitating self-isolation, practicing values that conflict with the constitution (such as the subordination of women) or outright rejection of shared civic values They end up becoming democracies that cede territory to their internal enemies.
It’s a paradox Popper“Unlimited tolerance eventually leads to the disappearance of tolerance.”
Spain faces real difficulties in integrating the first generations of immigrants of certain origins (especially from regions where Islam is the dominant cultural matrix), and this failure puts the integration of its children at risk.
When minors reach adulthood without internalizing basic democratic values, the problem multiplies.
No, there is no such thing as the “Great Replacement” Trump described. But there is a risk of replacing a small population if trends continue: with each generation, the indigenous Spanish population decreases while the foreign population grows.
This is not a conspiracy. It’s a simple mathematical projection.
Today the Spanish Constitution faces multiple threats. The position of independents who deny their legitimacy. Those separations that erode their integrative ability. Extremists of all stripes exploit it. And that a small percentage of immigrants want the material prosperity provided by Spain’s welfare state, But they reject the values that made it possible.
Added to this is the institutional weakness resulting from a president who occupied institutions, undermined the separation of powers, and attacked the judiciary, the press, and the Crown.
But history also teaches us that democracies have the capacity for renewal. The Constitution has survived more serious threats. If the political class has the courage to defend integration without naivety, immigration with control and the limits of constitutional pluralism, Spain will be able to maintain its open character without surrendering to its internal or external enemies.
Democracy is not irreversible. We all tend to believe in times of economic prosperity and social peace. It requires constant defense against all its enemies. It is always worth remembering that.