The economic slowdown noted in the release of the GDP (gross domestic product) for the third quarter of 2025 has a fiscal impact and could make the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) more dependent on extraordinary revenues to close accounts for 2026. Assessment by Special Correspondent of Bound Diana Tomaselli.
“When the economy slows down, you collect less taxes. Businesses have slower activity, so they pay less. This can have a negative impact on managed revenue, which is the strongest revenue that the government has to close its accounts for,” he said during this week’s Level C call, which was broadcast on Thursday (4).
This scenario, according to the journalist, increases the importance of the economic team led by Minister Fernando Haddad approving the measures at the National Conference.
She cited, as examples, the draft Tax Expenditure Review and the proposal to increase taxes on financial technology and online betting houses. The latter was approved by the Senate Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday (2), but still needs approval by the House of Representatives.
“It will be very important to follow these developments in the coming days to see how this matter will behave and how the government will be able to close its accounts for next year,” said Diana Tomaselli.
Cellick must continue at 15% and election year pressure
Reporter from Bound Natalia Garcia stated that the Central Bank is also monitoring the impact of these economic projects that are being processed in the legislature.
In the minutes of the last Cobom meeting, the commission said it had already included in its forecast a preliminary estimate of the impact of expanding the income tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000. But the journalist said, “This matter will crystallize as the months pass.”
The Governing Council meets next week, on December 9-10, to decide for the last time in 2025 the benchmark interest rate, the Selec. The level currently stands at 15%. The maintenance forecast is unanimous, according to Natalia Garcia.
The reporter estimated that the debate over lower interest rates in 2026 has left the financial market divided. Some expect the reduction to take place at the first meeting of the year, in January, under the pretext of high levels of real interest rates and GDP results, while others believe that it will take place in March because expectations, in their opinion, are far from the inflation target of 3%.
“Cobom aims to slow the economy and curb demand to contain inflation. Today, the central bank is looking to the second quarter of 2027. Cobom’s forecast is for inflation to reach 3.3%. It is still above 3%,” he said.
“Reaching the election with a very high interest rate will be a big test” for BC President Gabriel Galipolo, added Diana Tomaselli. The economist served as Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Finance and was appointed to his current position by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who will run for re-election in 2026.
Special Correspondent to Bound He noted that the federal government has adopted measures that increase demand for credit and consumption, such as special payroll loans and the new housing credit model. These initiatives may make it difficult for the central bank to control inflation.
“The pressures have really intensified in recent months, especially after the November meeting. We have seen members of the government loudly calling for lower interest rates, especially because this makes credit more expensive, and has an impact on businesses and consumers. This ultimately leads to causing discomfort among the population regarding the economy,” said Natalia Garcia.
Help at the Post Office: Political Chess and the Fear of the Treasury
Another issue dear to Lula’s government is the restructuring of Correos. The National Treasury denied granting a sovereign guarantee for the R$20 billion loan that the state-owned company intended to obtain from banks, leading to the process being suspended.
Diana Tomaselli assessed that there was concern among treasury technicians that the Federal Court of Audit (TCU) would conclude that the terms of the guarantee were not favorable and that they would be held liable for this.
Furthermore, despite the perception within the government that loan terms were not favourable, with the interest rate rising, the journalist found that members of the economic team recognized that there was also an “element of game strategy”.
“The pressure on the seats. They’re hanging, so you’re going to have to move,” he said. There is a game of chess being played.”
According to the journalist, there are three options before the state-owned company. Privatization, advocated by experts, is ruled out by the government. On the list are:
- Union contribution: Resources can be pumped into the company. The post office needs R$20 billion. The operation will have an impact on fiscal rules, and the government does not have much budget space;
- Loans with banks: This is the basic option, according to the journalist, and it is what was negotiated until the comment. In this case, the Treasury acts as guarantor and pays the installments in the event that Curios defaults.
- Change to a treasury-based company: The state-owned company will be part of the budget. The reporter estimated that this measure would create a series of dilemmas for the government due to the need to reduce spending on other areas. “It’s the most hypothetical situation,” he said.
“The Curios have always had a preference to contribute. The loan generates a full interest bill that they will have to pay, restructure the process and put it into the account. Of all the revenue they get from new customers, they will need to direct part of this to the banks,” he announced.