There are three hypotheses that could explain the announcement of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL) as the candidate of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) for the 2026 presidential race.
The first, and more nuanced, relates to Bolsonaro’s attempt to maintain his influence and control over the right even from prison.
The announcement on Friday (5) comes at a time when divisions in the group are becoming clear – from the attacks of federal representative Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) on Governor Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans) to the union of the former president’s children against their stepmother, Michelle Bolsonaro (PL).
In this sense, the appointment of Flavio is a message to show who is in charge and a direction to unite the right under Bolsonaro’s tutelage.
It is noteworthy that the former president’s move came in the week in which Michelle expected her independence as a political leader.
By publicly refusing to create an alliance with former minister Ciro Gomez in Ceará, the former first lady acted contrary to the directives of the party, which had the support of Bolsonaro himself.
Michele did not back down, and in the end it was Flavio who announced his apology. PL also suspended the agreement, extinguishing the episode. Party members estimated that extremism was on the side of the former first lady.
Bolsonaro has nothing to gain from publicly rebuking Michel or breaking with her, given his huge popularity among right-wing voters.
Thus, Flavio’s choice may be a thinly veiled attempt to put a brake on the ambitions of the woman, who was even a candidate to run for president.
Although he did not fry Michel — because that would mean frying himself — Bolsonaro empowers Flavio at a critical moment and appoints his son, an extension of himself, as his successor.
The other two hypotheses for the Friday announcement do not exclude the first hypothesis. In one of them, the former president was actually willing to support Flavio’s candidacy to the end.
In the second-round scenario against President Lula (PT), the senator performs worse than Tarcisio, Michel and Paraná Governor Ratinho Junior (PSD), according to a Datafolha survey published in August. The Labor Party member received 48%, compared to 37% for Flavio.
A Quaest poll in September showed that only 1% of those interviewed named the senator as the figure who should replace Bolsonaro.
Based on this hypothesis, the numbers indicate that the former president would be willing to rig the presidential elections in exchange for maintaining the clan’s political capital.
Some Hizb ut-Tahrir parliamentarians also estimate that Flavio’s candidacy may attract activists more than any other, more central candidate.
With more traction on the ticket, according to this reading, the party could elect a larger Senate seat, which today is the main goal of the Bolsonaro family and the party. These senators will defend the case of dismissing the ministers of the Federal Supreme Court and pardoning the former president and those convicted on January 8.
But Flavio’s nomination does not satisfy the center. According to the party leader, the senator does not unite the center and should remain isolated. In this case, the launch of other right-wing candidates is not ruled out. The presidency of Bolsonaro’s son will be even further away.
The last hypothesis is that the former president’s announcement is just a message or a hoax. Parliamentarians are not sure that Bolsonaro will even support Flavio’s candidacy.
First, because the former president is unstable. Second, because allies believe that the senator is in the Supreme Court’s crosshairs. In issuing the decision to prevent Bolsonaro’s preventive detention, Minister Alexandre de Moraes explicitly cited Flavio.
The judge stated that the protest he called for was an indication of “the repetition of the method of action of the criminal organization led by the aforementioned defendant (Jair Bolsonaro),” and that the video that the senator published to demand this action “incites disrespect for the constitutional text, the judicial decision, and the institutions themselves, which indicates that there are no limits to the criminal organization in its attempt to stir up chaos and social conflicts in the country.”
The assessment in politics is that Flavio has a glass ceiling, and if he were truly a candidate, any false move could cost him dearly.
Believing in the prosecution against his family, it is not certain whether Bolsonaro is willing to risk the future of his son, who has already avoided prosecution in the case of the alleged “Rachadinha” scheme in his office when he was a state representative.