The Americans are preparing a ground attack on Venezuela, the President of the United States said at length on Thursday (4) afternoon, to everyone who would listen.
Continuously, Maduro has been keen to brag about the strength of his relations with China. Despite reports in the American press that Trump had given him an ultimatum to leave the country, Maduro was inaugurating the China-Venezuela Friendship Square in the heart of Caracas.
Beijing also launched its rhetorical attacks there, saying it was working to keep Latin America a zone of peace and prosperity, and urging the American leader not to invade. I stopped there.
This is because Maduro’s bet on potential Chinese support in the event of an open conflict with the United States is illusory at best. Chinese support for Venezuela is no longer what it used to be, and today, the relationship is based more on diplomatic statements than concrete commitments.
In recent years, the Chavez regime has succeeded in turning China into a kind of external guarantor. From 2007 to 2019, Beijing lent about US$67 billion to the country, most of it in oil contracts that served as a guarantee of payment. The bet made sense at the time, given that Venezuela had the largest oil reserves in the world, and China was the largest global importer of fuel.
But with the collapse of the Venezuelan economy, increasing debt, and US sanctions, this equation collapsed. Loans were not repaid in full, oil shipments were rare, and the political environment in Caracas became a constant danger to any foreign investor.
The relationship, which seemed promising in the early 2000s, became a burden. China then significantly reduced its exposure, as companies halted direct purchases of oil and suspended new financing.
Now, facing the prospect of US military action, Maduro is trying to symbolically leverage the relationship with Beijing. Along with Russia and Iran, the regime is trying to present China as a counterpoint to American influence in the hemisphere.
Beijing will not believe this story. The rhetoric remains centered around defending the principle of “non-interference,” but in practice it is a position of comfortable neutrality that avoids confrontation with Washington and protects political capital in other, more important regions, such as the Indo-Pacific and Southeast Asia.
Venezuela has lost its strategic value for China and is no longer a priority given its marginal economic weight. Preserving the Chavez regime is only important as a tool to achieve a minimum level of stability that allows for some debt recovery, but any deeper Chinese military or diplomatic engagement will be disproportionate to the gains.
The lesson Beijing seems to have learned from the past decade is that ideological alliances are costly and yield little results. Therefore, his reaction is likely to be limited to the usual rhetoric, condemning foreign interventions. At the same time, he will monitor American movements from afar, with no intention of protecting Maduro from a possible collapse.
Beijing knows it has already lost a lot of money in Caracas. The priority now is to avoid further losses and preserve its global image in the context of intense competition with Washington. Maduro can continue to say that he is counting on Chinese support, but the truth is that if pressure increases, he will be at a loss for words.
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