Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) announced on Friday (5) that he has been chosen by his father, Jair Bolsonaro, to run for the presidency of the Republic in 2026. With this movement, the former president begins, from prison, to concentrate the political project of part of the opposition, as well as to frustrate the Centrao parties, which seek to unite around the governor of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans), to confront the president. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.
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On Friday, party leaders such as the Popular Party, the Brazilian Union, the Republicans and the Social Democratic Party assessed that Flavio’s candidacy, if implemented, would isolate the Bolsonarianism, pushing these parties to adopt neutrality next year.
But the concept is that this scenario can be reversed. Members of these parties believe that Flavio does not have the strength necessary to launch a presidential campaign, and the initiative will test Bolsonaro’s title in the previous campaign. This is the same reading as Palacio do Planalto, which until now celebrates the dismantling of the right.
On Friday, Flavio’s statement came after the senator informed his allies that his father called him, on Tuesday, to run for Planalto, in a conversation at the Federal Police (PF) watch in Brasilia, where he is imprisoned.
– It is with great responsibility that I confirm the decision of the greatest political and moral leader in Brazil, Jair Messias Bolsonaro, to entrust me with the task of continuing our nation’s project.
Flavio’s speech formalizes the internal movement created in the PL. According to reports, Bolsonaro has asked his eldest son to start behaving like a candidate: traveling around the country, intensifying clashes with Lula and organizing state programmes, tasks that allies consider essential to try to preserve the family’s political capital in 2026.
– Flavio told me that our leader has approved his candidacy. Bolsonaro has been said to have spoken. We are together – said PL President, Waldemar Costa Neto.
The President of the Centrão Party particularly appreciates that Flavio’s candidacy does not leave many alternatives to the centrist parties, and that the most likely course now is for some of these parties to remain neutral and focus on appointing a large number of federal representatives and senators.
On social media, Brazilian Football Confederation president Antonio Rueda complained about the statements regarding the 2026 elections, but did not mention Flavio. Minutes after confirming the senator’s pre-nomination, Rueda said, “It will not be polarization that will build the future.”
The national president of the Republicans, Tarcisio party, Rep. Marcos Pereira (SP), said he had not been informed in advance by any leadership in the Liberal Party about the decision. Asked if he was surprised, Pereira was succinct.
– I was not informed (of the decision). “I found out through journalism.”
At Centrao, the idea of supporting Flavio was ignored. The assessment is that the parliamentarian, like any member of his family, rejects Bolsonarianism. These same politicians add that Flavio did not score as well in the electoral polls as Tarcisio.
On Friday, former First Lady Michelle publicly expressed her support for the senator’s pre-nomination, even after falling out with Flavio over the building of the PL coalition with Cerro Gomez (PSDB) in Ceará.
“May God bless you, Flavio, in this new mission for our beloved Brazil,” Michelle wrote in a post on social media. “May the Lord grant you wisdom, strength and grace at every step, and may He direct His hand on your path for the good of our nation.”
As a result, plans by the former first lady’s allies to nominate her as vice president on the presidential ticket remain, at least for now, dormant.
Other right-wing candidates spoke out about Flavio’s announcement. Goiás state governor, Ronaldo Caedo (Uñao), said he respects the former president’s decision. Caido, who has been trying to become able to continue supporting Bolsonaro, says he is still a pre-candidate, despite being passed over.
He said in a statement, “It is a decision made by former President Jair Bolsonaro with his family, and it is up to all of us to respect it. He has the right to seek to make the candidacy of Senator Flavio Bolsonaro viable. For my part, I remain a pre-candidate for the presidency and I am convinced that we will remove the Workers’ Party from power next year and return Brazil to the Brazilians.”
The governor of Minas Gerais, Romeo Zema (Novo), followed the same line and stressed that the elections must include “multiple” candidates. “When I announced my pre-candidacy for President Bolsonaro, it was clear: multiple nominations in the first round help unify efforts in the second round. So, it makes perfect sense for Flavio to submit his name to the presidency. It is fair and democratic,” he wrote.
“The hobby of the right makes the left laugh,” said Pastor Silas Malavia, of the Vitoria m Cristo Assembly of God. One of the evangelical leaders closest to Bolsonaro stressed that he speaks “neither for nor against anyone.”
In Lula’s government, the political movement is viewed with caution by those around the president. In the eyes of the allies, it cannot be considered that the decision has been taken and that there will be no retreat from it in the coming months.
Government members viewed Bolsonaro’s move as a reaction to the recent public confrontation by the former president’s family and a way to advance the Bolsonaro family project.
Difficulty in alliances
Lula and those around him consider Tarcisio the most competitive candidate in the opposition group, but they do not see an easy election with Bolsonaro’s name on the ballot.
One consideration mentioned by Lolistas is that Flavio, although the most moderate name in the family, will have difficulty uniting Centrão around his candidacy. The Workers’ Party is already dividing parties such as the MDB, PSD, Republicans and the Popular Party of the United States, and is gaining at least some support.
The Tarcísio factor is also taken into account even if he runs for re-election. A more pragmatic wing of the government points out that Tarcisio, by trying for another four years in Palacio dos Bandeirantes, is consolidating votes for the right-wing candidate in São Paulo, the country’s largest electoral college.
On the other hand, Flavio Bolsonaro attracts a lot of votes in Rio de Janeiro, the birthplace of Bolsonaroism, which may boost Bolsonaro’s votes in the state. On the other hand, they believe that Flavio’s name would be an embarrassment to candidates for centre-right state governments in the northeast, where there are more dissidents than Lula.
Controversies and investigations in which the senator was involved
- Rashadinha in the limp – Flavio Bolsonaro was investigated for an alleged hacking scheme in his then office as state deputy in the Legislative Assembly of Rio (Alerg). The problem is when part of employees’ salaries is transferred. In 2020, the Public Ministry of Rio de Janeiro indicted the incumbent senator, but the Supreme Court of Justice (STJ) overturned the parliamentarian’s breach of confidentiality in 2021. This weakened the accusation, leading to its archiving.
- Chocolate shop – In 2018, a Council report revealed an unusual movement of 1.2 million Brazilian reais in the account of Fabricio Quiroz, former advisor to the then State Representative Flavio Bolsonaro. Between 2007 and 2018, according to prosecutors, money was laundered through a chocolate shop in a shopping center in Rio, which was searched and confiscated. The value will be linked to the condition of the cracks. Queiroz could have coordinated the scheme. In total, 383 deposits were identified in his account.
- Palace in Brasilia – In 2021, Flavio bought a mansion worth R$6 million in Lago Sul, an upscale neighborhood in Brasilia. The house consists of two floors, with an area of 2400 square meters, and a building area of 1100 square meters. The Senator contributed R$2.87 million and financed R$3.1 million through Banco BRB over 30 years. But the parliamentarian repaid the debt in full in 2024. At that time, Flavio, who receives a salary of 44 thousand Brazilian reals per month, confirmed that he is a “businessman and lawyer,” in addition to practicing parliamentary activity.
- Protest for Bolsonaro – Recently, Flavio came under the radar of the Special Forces after publishing a video calling on residents to demonstrate against the house arrest imposed on his father. The recording became one of the justifications for the arrest of Jair Bolsonaro on the orders of Alexandre de Moraes. According to the minister, Flavio “incited disrespect for the constitutional text, the judicial decision and the institutions themselves, which indicates that there are no limits to the criminal organization that attempts to cause chaos and social conflicts.”