United States President Donald Trump has intensified pressure on Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, designating him as the head of a terrorist organization, corralling warships in the Caribbean, ordering the closure of the South American country’s airspace, and suggesting imminent attacks on the country.
The Republican states publicly that his campaign aims to prevent the Venezuelan regime from sending drugs and criminals to the United States. However, former and current staffers privately say the White House’s ultimate goal is the departure of Maduro, who remains in power despite losing the presidential election last year.
“It’s not a pressure campaign, it’s much more than that,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday (3), referring to Venezuela. “You can’t rig an election like they did and be stupid.”
Last month, when a reporter asked him if Maduro’s days as Venezuela’s leader were numbered, Trump replied: “I would say yes.”
The Pentagon has made plans for possible military action in Venezuela, including sending special operations forces to try to kill or capture Maduro, The New York Times reported.
People close to the regime said the exhaustion of resisting pressure from Trump had weakened the dictator physically and emotionally, prompting him to beef up his personal security in response to Washington’s threats. His aides have suggested to the US that he might consider stepping down in 2027. However, the Trump administration has pushed for a quicker resignation.
If Maduro leaves power, his successor should be determined based on how that happens. Voluntary resignation, internal coup, or external military action would lead to differences between the candidates.
Moderate: Delcy Rodriguez, the regime’s second-in-command
Delcy Rodriguez will be first in the line of succession if he resigns or becomes incapacitated, according to the Venezuelan constitution. As interim president, the oil minister, who also serves as vice president, will be obligated to call new elections, but the timing of the elections will depend on when Maduro resigns.
Rodriguez, a relative moderate, is the architect of the market-friendly economic reform that has stabilized Venezuela after a long period of collapse. Privatization of state assets and conservative fiscal policy have made Maduro more willing to resist this round of economic pressure from Trump.
Educated partly in France, Rodríguez fostered relationships with Venezuela’s economic elites, foreign investors and diplomats, and presented herself as a global technocrat under a male-dominated military dictatorship.
However, his claim to the presidency will be weakened by Maduro’s electoral fraud. The opposition says that the dictator and all those appointed to the executive branch are usurpers.
Hardliner: Diosdado Cabello, Minister of the Interior
Maduro’s main internal rival, Diosdado Cabello, is considered the face of the country’s repressive apparatus, according to human rights groups, as well as the voice of the hardline faction focused on preserving the current regime at all costs.
Cabello, a retired lieutenant close to Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chavez, has so far been one of the biggest Venezuelan political winners in Trump’s pressure campaign.
The threat of invasion weakened Cabello’s more moderate domestic rivals, who supported economic and diplomatic rapprochement with the United States. Washington’s aggressiveness also served as a useful counterpoint to Capello’s acerbic political style. He has used his frequent public appearances and television programs to attack opponents and mobilize ruling party supporters against the external threat.
As interior minister, Cabello has tightened control over Venezuela’s security forces over the past year, appointing allies to key positions and overseeing systematic arrests of opposition sympathizers.
However, its tough tactics also mean that Cabello is the senior official with the most to lose from any political transition. Like Maduro, he faces drug trafficking charges in the United States, which is offering a $25 million (R$133.5 million) reward for anyone caught.
Nobel Prize Winner: Maria Corina Machado, opposition leader
María Corina Machado, a long-time conservative politician, led a grassroots election campaign that secured a landslide victory in last year’s presidential election, which was widely recognized as legitimate around the world. These efforts earned him the Nobel Peace Prize this year.
After the vote, a wave of repression forced Maria Corina into hiding inside Venezuela, but she continued to condemn Maduro’s power grab and human rights abuses in video statements.
The policy has always ruled out any agreement or negotiations with the regime and has defended Trump’s pressure strategy against Maduro.
Her courage and unwavering political agenda have made her the most popular politician in the country, according to opinion polls. However, the same rejection of compromise has made it anathema to Venezuela’s ruling elites, complicating its path to a negotiated transition.
Chosen One: Edmundo Gonzalez, retired diplomat
Edmundo Gonzalez was a little-known retired civil servant until last year, when he became the opposition’s unlikely presidential nominee. He replaced María Corina, who won the primaries easily, but was prevented from participating in the elections by the dictatorship.
Unable to take office after the vote, he fled Venezuela to Spain, ceding the spotlight of opposition to Maria Corinna. In occasional statements from exile, he adopted a more conciliatory tone than his political mentor.
“It would be against my principles and the course of my life for me to support any kind of violence, let alone a coup,” he wrote in The Economist last year.
Experts say Gonzalez’s electoral victory gives him legal legitimacy for the presidency. They add that his weak political connections will make it difficult for him to remain in power during the unstable period that is likely to follow any transition.
Operator: Jorge Rodriguez, President of Congress
Jorge Rodriguez is Delcy Rodriguez’s older brother and Maduro’s main political strategist. He has represented Maduro in negotiations with the United States for years, including negotiations with the Trump administration this year.
His claim to power will derive from his official position as president of Venezuela’s Congress – the ruling party won a majority in May’s parliamentary elections, having run virtually unopposed.
As president of an elected body, Jorge Rodríguez could enjoy political legitimacy in the transition period, according to some constitutional law experts. Others disagree, saying he should have no role because the parliamentary elections were neither free nor fair.
Opinion polls show that Rodriguez, a skilled political activist, lacks popular support. His position within the regime was also weakened by his decision to go ahead with last year’s presidential elections, even as opinion polls indicated a decisive defeat for Maduro.
General: Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Minister of Defense
Maduro has tasked General Vladimir Padrino Lopez, Venezuela’s highest-ranking officer, for years with maintaining the loyalty of various factions of the country’s armed forces.
He has made occasional pro-democracy gestures in recent years, and press reports implicated him in a failed coup attempt against Maduro in 2019. This has led political commentators and journalists to speculate for years about his ultimate allegiance.
However, Padrino López has publicly strongly defended Maduro, and units under his command have suppressed protests over the years.
Padrino Lopez has no formal path to the highest office in the country. However, the military’s vital position in Venezuelan politics means it could play an important role in any transition, according to analysts and people close to the regime.