Miami.- Real estate agents and developers are witnessing the first moves of the Mamdani effect: The escape of the wealthy from New York After the election of the Social Democratic Party Zahran Mamdani As its mayor.
When rich people move, they don’t go to any low-tax area. They don’t move to, say, Tennessee or Wyoming. They usually move to one place: Florida.
Governor Ron DeSantis He mentioned it as a joke Mamdani wins “Real Estate Agent of the Year” awardArguing that his progressive policies would prompt wealthy New Yorkers to move to Florida. Socialist promotes Funding social programs with higher taxes, as well as enacting rent control and tenant protection laws.
“The exodus has already started, it’s 100% real. There are many New Yorkers who have already started it Full New YorkersThey love their city and will stay there because it is their world. But there are many people who love their city but it is full, and they cannot handle what is happening. It’s not just them State taxes – State taxes that New York has that Florida does not have. If you have a big business, this man will control your business, especially if you have… Real estate. They were already seeing their friends who had been coming to Miami for four or five years, doing video calls, on a boat, watching the sun. “This is the straw that broke the camel’s back, and they can’t afford it anymore,” says Angel Nicola, founder of the Nicola Group, a brokerage firm working in the ultra-luxury market.
The agent insists that the current situation cannot be compared to the Covid situation. “Those who move are not ordinary people, They are the rich who seek luxury and extreme luxury. They own companies that make a lot of money. People who have grown up have already started arriving. But the biggest movement will happen next year, as the children are in school and are not moving now. “I’m looking for a home for a lot of people, and I have about 15 to 17 families who want to move to Miami but have to wait until school is over, and they’ve already applied to get in next year,” Nicola predicts.
Edgardo Defortona, founder of Fortune International, agrees. “Part of it is perception — that people will start moving more and more — and part of it is reality. I’m on the board of one of the largest high schools in Miami, and part of it is reality. Demand and inquiries for child registration increased dramatically from New York families after the election. This process will be slower than during Covid, when people had to escape. Now that the intention to migrate from one state to another is clear, one of the first things to be evaluated is the school in which they will enroll their children.
The Argentine businessman also notes that many of his agents have begun traveling frequently to New York to make offers to potential buyers. “We definitely see a High probability of a new wave of migration And an opportunity to welcome people. Not just to come and spend time in Miami, but as a permanent move.
Newcomers to Florida are looking for the best on the market, ready-to-move-in properties and leave the toothbrush in the bathroom. “I’ll go with the buyers to see Luxury homes between $6 and $8 millionAnd it may not convince them, so they raise the search above 10 million. In general, what moves the most is in 10 to 20 million range: This is the demand I see in areas like Miami Beach, Coral Gables, and Coconut Grove. What is sold is of exceptional quality; He adds that developers who have decided to build ultra-luxury projects are doing very well.
Defortuna says she’s seen that in recent weeks Lots of activity at the St. Regis in Sunny IslesDriven by its location directly on the beach, and also in Brickellespecially in Ciprianiwhich is already progressing on the 50th floor and offering faster delivery than other projects that are still in the pre-construction phase. All brokers agree on this request from those who prefer Rent first Then calmly evaluate where to buy. “There is a very interesting atmosphere for potential buyers who are real users and not speculators.“, sums up Defortuna.
To Vice President of YPX Realty, Carlos Montecalvo, Mamdani’s victory brought awareness to many who were skeptical about moving to Florida or Texas. “The victory of the social democrat who wants to put High taxes on people earning more than $1 million a year have people saying it’s time to go. So yes, there is a Mamdani influence. We got a 30% increase in inquiries from people from New York “They consider Florida a place to live,” Montecalvo says. In addition to the pleasant climate and tax advantages, Florida today has better infrastructure and has developed from a vacation town to a metropolitan city.
Argentinian Lucas Capurro, founder of Bomana, a luxury home developer, says he has received inquiries from people in New York but cannot classify it as an exodus. “The trend towards Miami was really driven by it Climate, quality of life and a very noticeable tax advantage. A person who earns a million dollars a year can Save about $110,000 more to live in Miami than in ManhattanFor failure to pay state or local taxes. In practical terms, we do not see a “mass exodus” from New York, but rather diversification. Capurro explains that many buyers remain active in the city, which remains a market with enormous liquidity and global appeal, while at the same time adding Miami as a growing hub.
In addition to companies and individuals deciding to set up shop in Miami, Montecalvo mentions a recent trend: Headhunters travel to New York to recruit talent and offer a move to Florida as an incentivea package that combines new business opportunities with the attractiveness of relocation.
For his part, DeFortuna expressed openness to New Yorkers coming, but admits concern about the direction of some of the measures announced by the new administration. “New York is the financial capital of the world and it is not good for the country to go through difficulties. “I hope this is temporary and that people realize that we all have to protect that city,” he warns.
Nicholas notes that young talents are working in… Stocks, commerce Capital markets continue to be concentrated in New York, but it is noted that this trend is beginning to shift towards Miami, which is attracting it A more flexible lifestyle. “Before Miami was her stadium – the place where they came to enjoy – the people of the North; Now they live here. Some of the world’s richest people have moved, e.g Jeff Bezos or Ken Griffin. These people don’t do anything too rash: they know what’s going on. Money follows money: If you want to be like them, you’ll want to be close to them. This trend is increasingly moving toward Miami. I don’t think we are on par with New York today Business centerbut give Miami another five to seven years. “Brickell really does look like Manhattan,” he says.
When comparing the prices of luxury goods in both cities, Nicola also sees a clear margin. In the most exclusive location in New York – like the new buildings on Billionaires Avenue – The value ranges between $60,000 and $70,000 per square meter. In Miami, even in the best areas, so are the prices Its price is about 40 thousand dollars per square meter.which maintains an attractive differential for those seeking to relocate. One step below, in the “upscale but not super” luxury segments, the gap narrows: while a square meter in Manhattan’s Financial District is around $30,000, in Brickell it’s between $20,000 and $25,000.