Lula’s approval rating is 32% and opposition is 37%.

• ‘He said it, he said it, “stupidly” and silently: How did the right react to Flavio Bolsonaro’s prior run for president?

This result interrupts the brief improvement marked at the beginning of September, when approval advanced by four points compared to July. At that time, Planalto was facing political circumstances outside the government: Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the president’s main opponent, was already under house arrest and would be sentenced by the STF after days of data collection; On the international stage, Lula was attracting Donald Trump, who imposed tariffs on Brazil and soured the economic debate. The September 7th, marked by the raising of a giant American flag on Avenida Paulista, heightened the climate of symbolic confrontation and helped inflame government militancy.

Since then, the political landscape has been shaken. The rapprochement between Lula and Trump, reached at the October meeting in Malaysia, led to the removal of part of the additional US tariffs and lowered the tone of the conflict. Meanwhile, Bolsonaro’s setbacks piled up: he violated an electronic ankle bracelet, was arrested on November 22 and sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for a coup attempt in 2022. He was arrested in the National Front in Brasilia, and saw the internal conflict over his political succession grow – Senator Flavio Bolsonaro claimed to have been appointed by his father, but names like Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) remain in the Their ranks. Correct radar.

But on the government side, the agenda has lost momentum. Planalto’s defeats piled up in Congress, especially in the Senate, where the open crisis with Davi Alcolombre (Uniao Brasil-AP) – after Lula appointed the union’s chief prosecutor, Jorge Messias, to the STF instead of his protégé Rodrigo Pacheco – led to a series of hostile votes. Mesías was touring the offices in search of the 41 votes needed for approval, while Alcolombre accelerated a dizzying agenda with a strong financial influence shortly after the nomination was announced. The relationship between the government and the Senate remains tense.

However, Lula celebrated a victory during this period: the exemption from income tax for those with income up to R$5,000, which was announced on national television on Sunday (30). Among voters with incomes between two and five minimum wages, approval of the government rose four points, a variance that is still within the margin of error. On a personal level, the president’s image remains higher than his administration: 49% approve of his individual work, compared to 48% in the previous poll. The rejection rate remained at 48%.

Another factor that aroused public opinion was the police operation in Rio that left dozens dead. This incident forced Lula to retreat and advance his positions, revealing internal divisions regarding public security. But the fallout was tempered by a lack of mobilization in Congress, already mired in its own disputes.