Announced as the candidate of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) as a rival to Lula (PT) in the 2026 elections, his son Flávio would be 15 points behind the PT member if a possible second round took place today.
Other names on the right, like governors Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) and Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR), are at 5 and 6 points, respectively.
The PL senator from Rio announced the induction of his father, sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison for attempted coup d’état after losing the 2022 elections to Lula and who will only be able to stand again at the age of 105, this Friday (5).
The nomination was seen by the Centrão, the MDB and the PSD, the amalgam that is in the Lula government and which also has names to contest it, with discontent. The figures from Datafolha’s most recent survey on next year’s succession add fuel to this mill.
The institute surveyed 2,002 voters from Tuesday (2) to Thursday (4), therefore before the announcement made by Flávio. The survey was carried out in 113 municipalities with people over 16 years old. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus two points.
From the second round, given that the fragmentation and rejection of the main names in the sector indicate that the bill will not be concluded in the first round, we see a marginal expansion of Lula’s dominance compared to the previous poll, at the end of July.
In the scenario against Flávio, Lula obtains 51% against 36%; previously he won 48% to 37%. The last name Bolsonaro is heavy in context.
Datafolha also tested the possible name of the former president in relation to his successor, given that until his candidacy is rejected by the Electoral Court, Bolsonaro can campaign, as Lula, then arrested and ineligible, did in 2018 until he launched his vice president, Fernando Haddad (PT). The institute did the same thing that year.
Bolsonaro’s advantage diminished during the period that coincided with his conviction and imprisonment. He lost 47 to 43%, and now 49 to 40%. But the chances of him running in the elections are, on the visible horizon, zero.
During the most fragmented first round, Lula maintained his usual advantage for those seeking re-election. Datafolha tested five scenarios, including one with Jair Bolsonaro. Among the four possible today, Flávio and his brother achieved the worst performance during the family clash against Lula.
The president obtains 41% of preferences, against 18% for the senator, 12% for Ratinho Jr., 7% for governor Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil-GO) and 6% for the head of the executive of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo).
In the simulation in which Flávio gives way to Eduardo, who finds himself in the United States in a declining campaign against Brazilian institutions in what he calls the persecution of his father, the result is identical.
When their mother-in-law enters the field, there is an improvement for the family: Lula continues with 41%, against 24% for Michelle, 10% for Ratinho Jr., 6% for Caiado and 5% for Zema.
In the configuration with Tarcísio as candidate, Lula again obtains 41%, while the governor reaches 23%. Ratinho Jr. holds 11%, Caiado 6% and Zema 3%. Obviously, these scenarios presuppose a total disunity of the right against the obvious name of Planalto, which allows us to assume that the withdrawals can be integrated into more viable candidacies.
It turns out that political logic does not predict this, but rather waits until the second round to sell expensive alliances. In this sense, what stands out is the toxicity of the Bolsonaro surname in the options for the final round.
This is also reflected in the measured rejection of candidates, the second most important element in the index of the viability of an electoral project.
The patriarch of the clan pontificates with 45% of voters who say they would never vote for him, tied with Lula, 44%, taking into account the margin of error. But without ever having participated in a national election, senator Flávio, with 38%, deputy Eduardo, with 37% and Michelle, with 35%, have already recorded very high rejection rates.
Much further down are the right-wing governors, most of whom have reasonable to good ratings in their states but are unknown at the federal level. Zema and Ratinho Jr. have a rejection rate of 21%, Tarcísio 20% and Caiado 18%.
All this puts Bolsonaro’s choice into perspective, seen as a way of trying to keep his last name relevant as the strongest on the right, something doubtful day after day.
There is still a lot to play for, but for now the scenario favors Lula, although his high rejection and disapproval of 38%, compared to 32% of stagnant approval in this round of Datafolha, are more than sufficient reasons to alert the Planalto for the issue of October 25, 2026.