one about labor reform and others that Milei celebrates

While Javier Milei calls for extraordinary meetings to expedite its package Labor reformsCriminal law and taxesa wide Opinion poll collected data on the economic situation that is central to the new phase into which the government has entered, among which stand out a Growth in purchase intention of durable goods This shows positive consumer expectations.

The survey comes from the consulting company Atlas Intel in collaboration with the Bloomberg agency. This company of Brazilian origin carries out measurements and studies on politics and economics in various countries of the region and in the United States and was one of those that expected Milei’s triumph in 2023. His last measurement in November included several Aspects of the economic situationin addition to evaluating the government and the image of national leaders.

The data on the purchase of durable goods is not insignificant, as for Milei they are in a somewhat complicated context: the assessment of the economic present is very negative for six out of ten respondents and almost 70% see the labor market as very bad, but at the same time the government’s assessment increased slightly in November and expectations of a short-term improvement in the economy are significantly more optimistic, according to the survey.

With these expectations comes greater purchasing intent and Milei provides an indication that the “Fiscal Balance” plan works with an inflation rate and a stable dollar price. However, this factor is somewhat related to the employment situation at a time of greater imports and the closure of factories and chains that produced growing concerns about job shortagesaccording to the survey, which says Pressure on labor reform.

What did the survey reveal about the assessment of the Milei government and the economic situation?

The Atlas Intel survey examined 3,111 cases between November 22 and November 27. When respondents were asked how they assessed Argentina’s economic situation, the labor market and their family at this time, the answers were mostly negative: 51% rate their family group poorly, 64% were negative about the economy in general and 69% were negative about the job market.

Here we begin to see the labyrinth that Milei must navigate, because despite this extremely negative diagnosis of the current economy, the government’s assessment has been negative slight improvement compared to Octoberthe month in which the ruling party surprised with its victory in the midterm elections, which gave new impetus to the libertarian management.

The negative rating is still worse than the positive one (46.5% “bad/very bad” and 29.9% “very good/good”), but has decreased significantly compared to October, when it was 51%, more than five percentage points, while approval remained stable and the “fair” rating also increased significantly.which was 22.5% in November. Overall, 52.4% rate Milei’s government moderately to positively.

Another contrast that the survey highlights is that the Expectation of an improvement in the economy in the variables measured by the survey is more optimistic than the current evaluation. As for them 41% believe the country’s economy will get better44% will be worse and 15% will remain the same while on the 38% believe the job market will improve46% will get worse and 16% will stay the same in “six months.”

Certainly, the part of those who believe that the situation will remain the same, compared to the opinions about the current moment, shows that the optimism is moderate, but the result of the survey on expectations is still better than that of the assessment about the present.

Key data on consumption and the other side of employment: a crossroads for the government?

The other related indicator in the survey came from measurement the intention to purchase durable goods. 26.9% of respondents expect to buy more, almost four percentage points more than in October. Those who plan to shop less are 47.5%, although this sector is down six percentage points compared to the previous month.

In this way, Atlas Intel’s work showed a favorable trend for the purchase of durable goods such as household appliances, cars, furniture or electronic items, an encouraging fact for Milei. The government is betting on more credit (normally used for these types of purchases) and on encouraging the use of “mattress dollars” precisely because of this This improves consumptionwhich, according to various economic consultancies, is showing signs of stagnation.

The data could be seen by the government as a positive indicator of the economic plan and its impact on purchasing power. However, the uptick in durable goods purchases comes amid an opening Imports and the phenomenon of Purchases through platforms such as Shein and Temufavored by a dollar price that is favorable for national industry and other economic actors It’s “cheap”while for Milei it is “stable” and benefits consumers.

However, the general context of imports and a dollar that favors consumption in this way is starting to show its downside in unemployment. The closures of branches of chains such as Vea, Frávega or Easy, the layoffs in the historic Essen pot factory or the closure of the Whirlpool washing machine factory are witness cases and have increasingly increased in recent months. Almost everyone cites the growth of imports as one of the determining factors.

Pressure on labor reform: How much have concerns about unemployment grown?

The poll also captured the impact this combination has on voters. Unemployment was classified as one of the “main problems”. of the country.” In the ranking compiled by Atlas Intel based on a multiple-choice questionnaire, “corruption” took first place with 44%, followed by Unemployment at 40.3% and then “High prices and inflation” at 34.7%.

But the most remarkable data from the study is that the Concerns about job shortages rose seven points in November compared to the same measurement in October. This indicator rose the most, followed by “High prices and inflation,” which rose by four points.

Between this result, the very negative assessment of the current labor market and the expectation of improvement in this area within six months, Pressure is easing on the labor reform or “modernization” project which Milei will submit to Congress for discussion in extraordinary sessions between December and February.

The ruling party presents the project – which proposes more flexible hiring and firing, changes to salaries, holidays, overtime and remuneration, as well as the abolition of many specific professional regulations – as a “law that gives Argentines back the opportunity to work” and increase registered employment, as recently defined Patricia Bullrichnew head of the LLA Senate bloc.

Given the results that each part of the survey showed, Milei will be under considerable pressure to fulfill this promise, partly due to the support for this initiative that other surveys show, but above all due to the framework of negative feelings towards the current situation, somewhat more positive expectations, coupled with confidence in consumption and an import dynamic that may favor these consumers but has a boomerang effect on employment.

The labyrinth that poses challenges for Milei in the reform phase, with the year 2027 as the horizon

All these points collected from the survey shape the The social algorithm that Milei must solve so that this new phase puts him on the verge of being re-elected in 2027, a goal already set by the influential Karina Milei in La Libertad Avanza. And when it comes to voting, according to the same survey, the economic combination is what decides the electorate.

“If there were elections in your country today, “Which issues would be most important to your election?” the consultant asked and 88% answered “the economy, the cost of living and employment”, i.e. everything that looks bad today but can improve in the short term.. Second is education.

In addition, Atlas Intel’s work also differentiated respondents in this way Age range and there it shows that the cost of living and the cost of employment are shared by everyone on the same level as priority issues in determining the vote. For “Generation Z”, the boys, it is even higher (90%). born between the 1990s and 2010s.

This detail is important because most optimistic about the “future of the country” They are the same young people. According to the survey, 48% of Generation Z are optimistic and 40% pessimistic about this, while among older voters the positive mood reaches a maximum of 37% and the negative mood is over 50%.

Therefore, for Milei, youth remains an important constituency as a support of positive expectations, which is crucial for any government. Therefore, in today’s situation of libertarian administration, it is important that this segment attaches equal or even greater importance to the employment and cost of living factors than the rest.

In this way, the results that the Opinion poll about the sensations around us Economy, consumption and employment They paint a challenging panorama for Javier Mileiwhich is currently initiating the new phase of its management in which the Reforms and especially labor reformsoccupy a central place, with re-election in 2027 the only horizon.