The confirmation of Flavio BolsonaroEldest son of Jair Bolsonaro, being considered his father’s candidate for president of the Republic seems to be excellent news for Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The president would improve his re-election prospects next year.
A Datafolha poll said Lula would outperform the former president’s son by 15 points in a possible second round.
The markets had already reacted with discontent on Friday when they learned of the news that Flávio Bolsonaro would be supported in place of one of the industry’s favorites, the governor of the powerful state of São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas, a former Bolsonaro collaborator.
However, the same Datafolha survey shows this Lula would have a 5 point lead if the rival was Tarcisio.
However, according to the same Datafolha poll published this Saturday by the Brazilian press, Lula has 37% disapproval versus 32% approval.
Still, his chances of re-election next year improved after North American President Donald Trump launched an extraordinary tariff attack on Brazil following its election defeat to reject Bolsonaro’s trial on attempted coup charges.
The former president was sentenced to 27 years in prison for this crime. In addition, Trump enjoys a very bad image in Brazil and the attack, which the government handled with great caution without any backlash, strengthened the head of state, who then decided to run for a second consecutive term.
Analysts say that positive image suffered a significant blow weeks ago when Rio de Janeiro Governor Claudio Castro, a Bolsonaro leader, launched a confused attack against two Red Command-dominated favelas that left more than a hundred dead, some of whom were beheaded or executed. But all of the drug gang leaders managed to escape.
The issue of security is a weak weakness of the PT government and this expression of horror undermined the president’s image. Amid the tensions, Bolsonaro leaders created a league of governors consisting of Castro and de Freitas, as well as Romeu Zema, the governor of Minas Gerais, who has already submitted his candidacy.
According to Datafolha, Lula would receive 41% of the vote in a first round with Flávio in the race. Bolsonaro’s eldest son, 18%, Zema, 6%. Another 13% said they would not vote for either candidate, zero or not at all. De Freitas has not yet submitted his application.
The São Paulo stock market closed this Friday with a sharp decline of 4.31% after the election of Flávio was announced as his political successor. It was the largest single-day collapse in São Paulo’s square since 2021, an extraordinary rebuke of the former president’s decision.
The diary Saint Paul State He explained that this novelty clearly benefits Lula, “for the simple reason found in the polls that an electorate identified with the center – which is crucial in shaping the elections – is ready to vote for any anti-PT candidate who does not come from the Bolsonaro family.”
“Even if Flávio is – if that is possible – the “moderate of the family”, he will endure all the rejection that comes with the name of the clan. He may get a significant percentage of the presidential vote, say 40%, but he will push the moderate voters of the population to vote blank or vote for Lula’s number 13.”