Flávio Bolsonaro, a PL-RJ senator who declared his father’s name for the 2026 elections, is considered ideal by only 8% of Brazilian voters to be launched by the former president. 22% prefer former first lady Michelle and 20% prefer Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP).
This is what Datafolha’s new investigation reveals on next year’s presidential succession, in which the right sees itself divided with its main name arrested and ineligible, while the left camp is concentrated around President Lula (PT).
The institute surveyed 2,002 people from December 2 to 4, before Flávio announced his candidacy. The photograph does not favor the senator, who is already facing resistance from the center.
In July, 23% cited Michelle as the name that Jair Bolsonaro (PL) should propose to run for president. The index now stands at 22%, a fluctuation in the survey’s margin of error of two points. Tarcísio held 21% and fluctuated up to 20%. Governor Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR) also varied, from 10 to 12 percent, while Flávio’s brother, exiled deputy Eduardo (PL-SP), went from 11 to 9 percent.
The senator from Rio de Janeiro also fluctuated, from 9% to 8%, in a stability also recorded by governors Ronaldo Caidado (União Brasil-GO), who obtained 6%, and Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), who went from 5% to 4%.
Not that Bolsonaro’s support is, according to the voters surveyed, necessarily a good thing. For 50% of them, a name proposed by the former president will never receive their vote. 26% say the opposite, that they would certainly choose a bolsonarista with a seal of origin, and 21% that they could do so. 3% did not know how to answer.
Even because of the obvious “recall”, Bolsonaro is the second most remembered name in the spontaneous survey carried out by Datafolha, with 7% of the mentions for the presidency. Lula leads this ranking with 24%, while Tarcísio (2%) is tied with Ratinho Jr. (1%).
As under the current rule, the former president sentenced to 27 years and 3 months for attempted coup by the Supreme Court will only be able to run in the distant 2060, when he will be 105 years old if he is alive, the attention turns to the heirs presumed.
Due to São Paulo’s political and economic weight, Tarcísio, an unknown Bolsonaro Minister of Infrastructure who served discreetly under the governments of Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Michel Temer (MDB), chosen by the then boss for the conflict in the state he barely knew in 2022, emerged as the obvious name.
But Bolsonaro’s oversight forced the family to recalculate, seeking to maintain its relevance in the right-wing scenario. This is how the nomination announced by Flávio himself was read, among the leaders of the Center and Center parties, on Friday (5).
It now remains to convince the faithful of Bolsonarism, to begin with, a group estimated at 20% of the electorate in a cut made by Datafolha which takes into account factors like the 2022 vote and its regrets.
This is a segment whose characteristics match what political folklore considers a Bolsonarista: male, more evangelical than Catholic, white, middle to upper class.
In this group, Michelle is considered the ideal name that Bolsonaro should give to carry his flag against that of Lula in 2026: 35% of those heard think so. 30%, a technical tie in the specific margin of error calculated, prefers the governor of São Paulo.
The two other candidates from the Bolsonaro family are much further behind: they want 14% as candidate from the Eduardo clan, against only 9% who cite the announced elected official, Flávio. Next come Caiado, with 4% of citations, and Zema, with 2%.