Retail is enough End of the year with a more favorable environment for consumptiondriven by the recovery in formal employment and a consumer more willing to spend. This scenario has reactivated sales in various commercial formats and supports the expectation of a summer of greater activity.
Companies in the sector are already seeing an increase seasonal demand and they expect a start to the year characterized by more solid consumption. The improvement in purchasing power and the higher liquidity of households fuel the forecast of more dynamic development in 2025.
The Institute for Economics and Business Development (IEDEP) of the Lima Chamber of Commerce Retail sales are forecast to exceed S/52,000 million in 2025, which would represent growth of 6.2%. In December alone, the sector would reach more than S/6.2 billion, an increase of 7.5% compared to the same month last year. For the first quarter of 2026, a value of more than 13,110 million S/ is estimated, an increase of 5.1%.
Óscar Chávez, head of the IEDEP, said: “This achievement will depend on the development of the private consumptionwhich represents 63% of GDP and formal employment growth. As long as both maintain their positive trend, it will be possible to maintain this growth forecast in the following months.” He also recalled that formal private employment could approach the 5 million mark in 2026, a trend supported by the recovery in consumer and investor confidence.
The growth in formal employment – which increased by 6.2% in the last three months – and the 9.3% increase in the real wage bill have increased families’ purchasing ability. This impulse is reflected in the Domestic demandin a context where GDP is expected to end the year with growth of at least 3%. Currently 4.6 million people are formally employed.
The patterns of consumption show that food and beverages account for 27% of retail sales, followed by clothing and footwear (17%), household items (16%) and hardware (7%). These shares have remained relatively stable in recent years, allowing the sector to forecast its development for 2025 and 2026 with greater certainty.
The Guild retail and distribution of CCL estimates that the Christmas campaign will grow nearly 8% this year, supported by a more optimistic consumer and greater interest in self-gifting. The liquidity available in households has also expanded the scope for higher-value purchases and marked a particularly active season.
Technology and home appliances are among the most dynamic categories, with strong demand for mid- to high-end smartphones, smart devices and video game consoles. When it comes to toys, learning products and licensed items related to film or television franchises come first. In the clothing and footwear sector, the search for garments with higher perceived value and sustainable fashion suggestions is increasing.
These trends point to a more intense season at the end of the year and reinforce the industry’s optimism for 2025, marked by rising consumption and a summer that could become one of the most dynamic for the world retail.
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