The president of the Junta de Extremadura, María Guardiola, would only be one or two seats away from an absolute majority if the regional elections scheduled for December 21 took place today.
According to the latest SocioMetrica survey for EL ESPAÑOL, the PP candidacy led by Guardiola would obtain between 30 and 32 deputies (43% of the votes), close to the absolute majority set at 33 seats in the Autonomous Chamber.
Meanwhile, the brother casefor which he is under investigation in the Badajoz court, shatters the options of the socialist candidate, Miguel Ángel Gallardo.
The PSOE loses eight points in voting intention, compared to the previous elections of 2023: it would obtain between 21 and 22 seats (29.4%). In other words, up to seven deputies would be left out, compared to the 28 currently available to the Parliament of Extremadura.
For its part, Podemos sees in these elections the opportunity to rise from the ashes. In the absence of Sumar’s candidacy, Ione Belarra’s party is running in the 21-D elections with Izquierda Unida (IU), under the brand Unidas por Extremadura.
And this formula allows Podemos to consolidate and slightly improve its results in the region, taking advantage of the fall of the PSOE.
According to the SocioMétrica survey, the Podemos-IU list could obtain between 4 and 5 seats (7.9%). A little above his result two years ago, where he obtained four deputies, with 6.1% of the votes.
In this way, María Guardiola (30-31 deputies) would far exceed the 26 seats that the PSOE and the radical left of Podemos-IU would add.
Guardiola was forced to call early elections because the PSOE and Vox prevented her from carrying out the Council’s budgetary project.
And this tension with Santiago Abascal’s party was reproduced from the start of the campaign.
The popular candidate called the statements of Abascal “sexist”, who said in an interview on Friday that “if Guardiola insists – to not agree with them -, maybe the PP will have to change candidates“.
“This macho smell of Mr. Abascal could have stayed with him a little“, replied the Chairman of the Management Board.
Vox attempts to capitalize on the aggressiveness of these speeches. According to the SocioMétrica survey, Abascal’s party would improve its results by going from the current five regional deputies (8.4%) to a range between seven and nine (12.3%).
But the survey includes another novelty, since the regionalist coalition Together for Extremadura-Levanta, led by Raúl González, could obtain a seat for Badajoz.
And this seat could be decisive if the popular María Guardiola is missing one deputy to obtain an absolute majority.
Together for Extremadura has integrated former leaders of Ciudadanos (Cs) and is trying to break the dependence on the extremes. He defends hunting, bullfighting and the maintenance of the Almaraz nuclear power plant, which Pedro Sánchez’s government plans to close.
The transfer matrix reflects the loss of votes suffered by the PSOE, hit by the brother casewhich will bring the socialist candidate Miguel Ángel Gallardo to the bench next May, alongside the musician David Sánchez, brother of the president of the government.
The PSOE today only manages to retain 61% of its former voters. An additional 10% now bet on PP, 5% on Vox, 4% on Podemos-IU and the same percentage on Juntos por Extremadura.
The PP is the party that best retains the loyalty of its former voters (84% will repeat). However, the PSOE is the preferred option among young people voting for the first time (23% say they will support Gallardo), followed by Vox (18%) and the PP (11%).
According to the SocioMétrica survey, 34.7% of citizens in the region want a PP government with an absolute majority, which would not depend on other political parties.
To a lesser extent, 30.2% demand “change led” by the PSOE, while only 13.6% would like a coalition government formed by the PP and Vox.
María Guardiola is the favorite of Extremadurans to chair the Council: this is what 37.6% of those questioned say, compared to 19.1% who support the socialist Miguel Ángel Gallardo.
With one significant difference: Guardiola has the support of 80% of voters in his party, the PP. On the other hand, Gallardo only obtained the support of 48% of socialist voters.
One in five voters (18.7%) who voted for the PSOE in the last elections are now betting on Guardiola.
The candidates of Unidas por Extremadura (Vamos-IU), Irene de Miguel, supported by 11.5%, and Vox, have less support. Oscar Fernández (8.9%).
In fact, due to the low level of knowledge of its candidate, Vox decided to give a big role in the campaign to Santiago Abascal and other national leaders of the party.
When the election comes down to candidates from the two main parties, 46.8% of those surveyed bet on María Guardiola, while 32.4% want Miguel Ángel Gallardo to be president.
The current President of the Council is starting the electoral campaign with the aura of a winner: 53.3% of those questioned believe that she will be re-elected President.
This is what 70% of Vox voters, 62.7% of Juntos por Extremadura voters, 41.3% of PSOE voters and even one in three Podemos voters think.
Only one in five Extremadura residents (23%) consider the change viable and believe that, against all expectations, Miguel Ángel Gallardo will become President of the Council in these elections.
Technical sheet:
In the Autonomous Community of Extremadura, 1,100 surveys were carried out, in proportion to the provincial electoral censuses, with the CAWI-Panel system between December 4 and 6, 2025. The sample was balanced in successive phases using gender, age and recall quotas. Interactions end at 97% of settings. There is no sampling error or confidence margin since it is non-probability sampling, although an error of +-3% can be estimated in the final vote. The study was carried out by the company SocioMétrica, member of I+A and directed by Gonzalo Adán, doctor in social psychology and DEA in behavioral science methodology.