The region’s main political leaders continue to await the situation in Venezuela and possible negotiations between United States President Donald Trump and Nicolás Maduro that would allow a solution to the political crisis that the Central American country has been experiencing for some time.
Mario Perdigón, political scientist, analyst and university professor, believes that the only way out for the Chavista leader is to negotiate a way out, adding that “there could be a result by February.”
Q: What possible scenarios does Venezuela envision given U.S. pressure?
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MP: The political cycle of Nicolás Maduro and 21st century socialism has run its course, it is exhausted. Today it represents a hybrid model with influences from Russia, China, Iran and Cuba. In economic terms it is trying to open up, but it has not gained the necessary trust and has not solved the problems of poor international relations with several countries, above all with the United States, which today pressures and threatens it militarily off its coasts. The movement is huge, there are many threats of war. Also full of contradictions: On the one hand, Trump and his government call Nicolás Maduro the head of the solar cartel and illegitimate and at the same time call on him for dialogue. In Venezuela, public opinion was initially spread that the invasion was imminent, but after Trump called for a phone call with Maduro, the invasion lost credibility.
Q. What is best for Maduro?
The negotiations with the USA are favorable for Maduro. Nobody benefits from a military confrontation, especially not if it can be avoided: we know when it begins, but not how long it will last or the actual consequences. The United States is a military superpower, but Venezuela is not. Maduro knows it.
Trump is exerting strong military pressure by deploying a large military force to the Caribbean, including the world’s largest aircraft carrier, but at the same time unleashing a psychological war aimed at an internal collapse of the Venezuelan regime or possible negotiations. For now, Venezuelan officials remain united and resistant to iron-fisted control of the military sector.
Q. Is an invasion possible?
A military invasion is a possible scenario, but not the first option. The negotiation scenario is entirely feasible, it suits the Maduro government and the Trump administration, the unfortunate thing is that so far there has been no direct participation of an opposition representation in it; Of course, this is in full development; All parties must understand that a solution that enables a concerted resolution of the crisis is essential; and there must also be representation from the military, opponents such as Edmundo González and María Corina Machado.
The crucial issues include the creation of a transitional government in charge of carrying out urgent reforms, in which all sectors of society are represented, and whose main objective is to unite Venezuelans, consolidate a genuine democracy, organize independent powers, respect the constitution, guarantee the rule of law and carry out a comprehensive economic reform that will allow the restoration of purchasing power. It is a complex issue, but I can confirm that between now and February an outcome is entirely possible, there is urgency and desperation.
The United States has the ability and strength to provoke a military confrontation. There are those who rule out a military invasion because there are only 15,000 military personnel, but let us remember that today technology has changed, Trump has the options in his hands and Maduro has apparently decided to prepare for a guerrilla war, the well-known asymmetric confrontation, in the face of American superiority.
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