The United States is strengthening its military power in the region to contain China and put pressure on Cuba and Nicaragua

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Analysts interviewed by GLOBO emphasize that the American military mobilization – considered the most important in the Americas since the missile crisis of the 1960s – is part of a broader plan aimed at reinserting the United States as a hegemonic power in the region: a response to the growing influence of China on the countries of Latin America and the agenda of Republican sectors which have as a priority the overthrow of leftist regimes on the continent, which puts Cuba and Nicaragua in the line of sight.

A rapid expansion of the US military presence is already underway in the region. From the Pacific coast of El Salvador to the far reaches of South America in Trinidad and Tobago, the Americans established positions in at least ten countries.

— The United States wants to define its position — said retired Colonel Paulo Roberto da Silva Gomes Filho, master of military sciences, explaining that the dispute between Beijing and Washington is taking place beyond the Asia-Pacific. — For some analysts, it is a return to power politics, to the recognition of a reality marked by strategic environments and zones of influence.

The document that officially established Trump’s strategic policy was explicit on this point. Verbatim, it speaks of a revival of the Monroe Doctrine to “restore American preeminence” and protect the homeland and access to key regions.

“We will deny our non-hemispheric competitors the opportunity to deploy forces or other threatening capabilities, or to possess or control strategically vital assets in our hemisphere.”

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Although the document does not directly mention China, it contains veiled mentions of Beijing, such as a reference to “difficult to reverse” trends in some countries. The White House also speaks of “discouraging” collaboration with countries outside the region, by all means.

Political scientist Maurício Santoro, collaborator of the Brazilian Navy’s Center for Political and Strategic Studies, said in an interview with GLOBO that the military presence is part of a logic of intimidation and coercion to counter the Chinese presence.

— (Military mobilization) is an instrument of pressure. Just like customs tariffs, which play not only an economic and commercial role, but also political coercion, pushing countries in a certain direction — Santoro explained, believing that there are limits to what military power alone can achieve. — No matter how concerned the use of force may be, countries will not stop buying Chinese industrial products or selling them to China.

US policy provides for “rewards” for aligned “governments, political parties and movements” and excludes fighting against regimes with different ideologies willing to cooperate.

Although the global conflict with Beijing is one of the reasons for the American move to Latin America – as well as, more particularly, the operation to combat international drug trafficking – the military presence is supported by the specific objectives of sectors of Trumpism, represented above all by the Secretary of State and National Security Advisor, Marco Rubio.

The son of Cuban exiles who fled Fidel Castro, Rubio made a career in Florida as spokesperson for a Latin American community opposed to the continent’s left-wing regimes. At the top of the Trump administration, the Republican now has the capacity to act directly against the regimes he has always persecuted.

— Rubio has a lot of power. He is no longer just Secretary of State, he is National Security Advisor, he sits in the White House. The only other person to have held both positions was Henry Kissinger, said Gunther Rudzit, professor of international relations at ESPM and Air Force University (Unifa) collaborator. — He is able to exercise influence in the structuring of all operations in the region, and the anti-communist vision that he conveys will create problems for left-wing regimes of an anti-American character, starting with Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba.

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Operational flexibility

Rudzit believes that US action could evolve into a direct attack on Venezuela, both because of the country’s alignment with Chinese interests in the region and its strategic role in supporting Havana and Managua.

— Venezuela is what still supports Cuba and Nicaragua with cheap oil. If you take Venezuela out of the equation, both regimes weaken, the professor said. — For me, they are next on the list. That’s why all this infrastructure is put in place.

Although analysts point out that an attack on Venezuela would occur in violation of international law, the military force sent to the region is not capable of opposing any opposition in any Latin American country.

— The U.S. fleet in the Caribbean, made up of aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, amphibious landing ships and special forces operations, is extremely powerful, diverse and has no equivalent in Latin America, Santoro said. — No Latin American navy, neither Brazilian nor Mexican, has the capacity to face this colossus that the Americans have placed there.

The construction of a network of structures and bases in the countries of the region constitutes a strategic asset, even with the withdrawal of a large part of the ships – a scenario considered the most likely by Colonel Gomes Filho, once the problem with Venezuela is resolved. Repositioning ensures the ability to concentrate logistical resources, as well as a variety of options to facilitate operations, such as the ability to attack enemy positions without the need for aerial resupply.