Faced with the increase in violence against women in São Paulo, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) considers the female electorate as one of the main electoral challenges for 2026.
Recently published polls highlight the difficulty for Tarcísio to win the female vote, while the first lady, Cristiane Freitas, is gaining more and more space at the Palácio dos Bandeirantes, as a strategy to approach this audience.
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The rejection of female voters is a problem for Tarcísio, both in a possible conflict for the Presidency of the Republic and in a conflict for his re-election – a scenario that strengthened after former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) chose Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) as his candidate for Planalto.
For political marketer Felipe Soutello, the approval of the Tarcísio government is consistent with the standards of former governors.
He would be slightly better rated than João Dória (PSDB) and with slightly lower approval than the first terms of Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) and José Serra (PSDB), but there is a difficulty for Tarcísio with voters in the capital and among women.
“Normally, São Paulo governors had an approval rate of the female public equal to or higher than that of the male public. Tarcísio is the only governor in the last 20 years who has an inverted approval rate. He has an approval rate higher than 10 percentage points among men compared to women,” Soutello analyzed.
Female preference
In November, an electoral survey published by the Atlas Intel institute among potential presidential candidates showed a technical tie between Lula (49%) and Tarcísio (47%) in a possible second round.
However, Lula’s advantage is evident among female voters. While Lula would have the support of 58% of the women’s vote, Tarcísio would have 25% – a drop of 22 points from the vote total.
The same advantage of PT members among women is demonstrated in the November survey of Paraná Pesquisas. In a first-round election, with Lula and Tarcísio running, both would advance to the second round.
According to the survey, the current president would have 36% voting intentions and 36.7% female voters. Meanwhile, Tarcísio would obtain 23.2% of the general vote and 18.5% among women, almost five points less.
Protagonism of the first lady
For allies, one of Tarcísio’s strategies to reduce this rejection of women is to give a leading role to first lady Cristiane Freitas. She chairs the Social Fund of São Paulo, an organization focused on social assistance, which created 45 new positions in December.
Cristiane also appears more and more alongside Tarcísio, whether on social networks or at events. On Thursday (12/04), the first lady and the governor promoted, at the Palácio dos Bandeirantes, the graduation of students from the “Professional Qualification Schools” program, maintained by the Social Fund.
Representative Rosana Valle (PL-SP), president of PL Mulher de São Paulo and ally of Tarcísio, listed the Metropolises a series of policies aimed at the female public of the São Paulo government.
She cited public security, health measures and the “SuperAção SP” program, Tarcísio’s commitment to the social field, which her allies said would be important in attracting female voters.
“When we look at the work as a whole, we see a governor who not only talks about ‘defending women’ in his speech, but who creates a structure, a protocol, a support network, training and real opportunities for the women of São Paulo to have security, autonomy and protagonist,” Rosana said.
In addition to the first lady, Tarcísio is also trying to overcome the rejection of women by having female representation in two important portfolios.
Secretary Natália Resende heads the Secretariat of Environment, Infrastructure and Logistics (Semil) and Marília Marton, the Secretariat of Culture. In addition to them, Tarcísio retained the services of the State Attorney General (PGE Inês Coimbra), who already held this position under former governor Rodrigo Garcia.
Bolsonaro’s “crossroads”
Defined by Soutello as a “crossroads,” Tarcísio’s proximity to former President Bolsonaro is a paradox facing the governor of São Paulo.
Although Tarcísio still depends on Bolsonarism to build his political viability, the closer he gets to the former president, the further he distances himself from the majority of female voters – as well as other groups who prefer a candidate “neither Lula nor Bolsonaro”.
Professor at the Federal University of São Carlos, political scientist Maria do Socorro Braga points out that the difficulty for candidates linked to Bolsonarism to be sympathetic to women is strictly linked to the customs of Bolsonarism, which end up acting against the reduction of inequalities between the sexes.
“(These candidates) defend an agenda, from a behavioral and moral point of view, that places women in a role practically subordinate to men, with a role much closer to that of housewife. These older roles, different from a change that women have experienced in recent decades,” said Maria do Socorro.
Femicide on the rise
Instances of femicide and violence against women in the state, with national repercussions, further complicate the hunt for female votes by Bolsonaro’s candidates.
This was the case of Tainara Souza Santos, a woman who was dragged by the car driven by her ex-boyfriend on Marginal Tietê.
Despite the reduction in criminal indicators in the state, such as robbery and homicide, the pattern is not repeated when it comes to the murder of women.
Data from the Sou da Paz Institute shows that cases of femicide in the state of São Paulo increased from 188 last year to 207 in 2025. The change represents an increase of 10.1%. Since the start of the Tarcísio government, in 2023, feminicides have increased by 16.9% in São Paulo.
“Femicide is a very discredited issue in politics. There is a lot of talk about it, but very little is done on this issue,” says political marketing specialist Jade Gandra Martins Dutra.
For her, public security is exploited by right-wing candidates with extreme violence, who can engage on social networks, but does not generate a connection with women who are not sympathizers of Bolsonaro.
Low budget
Tarcísio was the first governor of São Paulo to have a portfolio dedicated to women. However, the Secretariat for Women’s Policies is the department with the lowest available budget in the entire government. The current allocation for 2025 is BRL 36.2 million (with BRL 26.6 million completed during the year).
For next year, the government anticipates that the ministry will remain in the same situation. The budget project sent to the Legislative Assembly of São Paulo (Alesp) provides for 16.5 million BRL for 2026.
According to the government, this is explained by the fact that the department “is a transversal secretariat, which acts as an articulator of public policies, identifying needs and coordinating programs with other secretariats and state bodies”.
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