Chasing final G5 spot, Fluminense and Botafogo have tough clashes in Brasileirão final round

The tricolor has an advantage for the final dispute: since taking the reins of the team in September, coach Luis Zubeldía does not know what it is like to leave the Maracanã without three points at home: he has eight victories in eight games, including triumphs in the classics against Botafogo and Flamengo. In fifth place with 61 points, the limit for direct qualification to the Libertadores, a victory is enough to guarantee a place in the group stage.

According to the Bola de Cristal do Brasileirão, a tool developed by GLOBO in partnership with the UFMG, the chances of a French victory are 52.8%. Bahia’s probability of victory is only 18.4%, but a misstep would be fatal: rivals in the fight for the G5, the Bahia team would reach 63 points and push the Rio team to sixth place.

There is two good news for Zubeldía: Canobbio and Thiago Silva are back in the team after missing the last round. The Uruguayan striker was suspended and the defender was rested during the victory against Grêmio last Tuesday.

In Botafogo, the situation is a little more uncomfortable. The black and white team, led by Davide Ancelotti, has the same 60 points as Bahia, but one victory less, and is in seventh place in the standings. To advance directly to the Libertadores group stage, you not only have to beat Fortaleza, but also hope that the duel between Fluminense and Bahia ends in a draw.

The big question, for the moment, falls to Barboza. The defender suffered a ligament strain in his right knee, is not yet fully recovered and will be able to play “as a sacrifice”. David Ricardo, sent off during the match against Cruzeiro, being suspended for this round, Davide will have to improvise to form the first line: Gabriel Silva, Marquinhos and midfielder Newton are options. Marçal, who had a good performance in the last match despite being moved to left back, will be back in the starting XI.

At the bottom of the table, Fortaleza, the first team out of the relegation zone, has gone nine matches without losing. In meteoric rise under the command of Martín Palermo, the team saw the risk of defeat drop from 92.6%, on the 33rd day, to only 35.2% after the 37th. Even if they lose against Botafogo, the team can still guarantee their permanence with the stumbles of Vitória and Internacional.

This is the same case as Ceará, 15th, which hosts Palmeiras and which has a 20.4% risk of being relegated. Santos, one position above and with 44 points, is in a better situation. At Vila Belmiro, they only need a draw against Cruzeiro to guarantee their stay: the chances of returning to Serie B are only 2.1%.