In conversation with Channel EEconomist Pablo das Neves The bank assessed the financial impact of US support, the government’s exchange rate policy and inflationary expectations for 2026.
Optimism in the markets and international support
The expert pointed out that:With the political risks having subsided after the elections, confidence in Argentina has been renewed todayHe explained that US support was crucial, since “This allowed the country to fulfill its obligations to the International Monetary Fund“.
according to Das NevesThis support and the possibility of buying back securities led to a strong improvement in financial assets: “Today all sectors are rising: CERs, inflation-adjusted bonds, SAFIJA bonds and hard dollar bonds. The entire curve is positive“, Detained.
The economist compared the situation in Argentina to the situation in Brazil, highlighting the possibility of improvement. “Brazil’s risk is about 300 points, and Argentina still has a way to go to drop another 200 or 300 points. If all goes well, we can get there in January“, project.
As announced “With country risk approaching 300 points, the government could return to the debt markets and refinance their maturities in January and July.“, which is an order – according to Das Neves“He will give.”Important financial oxygen for the coming years“.
Exchange rate, reserves and inflation: challenges for government
With regard to exchange rate policy, Das Neves He explained that “The dollar exchange rate currently stands at 1% per month, which is not beneficial for Argentina to be able to export“It is considered necessary”Expanding exchange scopes“To encourage activity. He noted that Minister Caputo had already expected an increase to 1.5% and added: “I dare say they may have to expand it a bit over time, similar to the model Israel did in 1985.“.
When asked about the goals of reserve accumulation, he warned: “It is very difficult for the government to achieve the stated goal“This is most likely”The International Monetary Fund grants him some kind of exemption, as it has done on other occasions“.
Das Neves I considered that “The minister’s wrist will have to expand the upper drain so that he can accumulate reserves“, although he admitted that this would have an impact on prices:”A stronger dollar will affect the inflation rate slightly; It’s not a 100% pass, but it will be noticed“.
And about expectations, expect.”Inflation in October will be just above 2%.“, and “We Argentines will have to get used to an inflation rate of 2% per month for several more months“By 2026, it is estimated that the annual index”It will be around 23-24%, which equates to an average of 2% per month“.
Regarding investments, he recommended caution and stressed that “CER bonds that adjust for inflation and today pay inflation plus a real positive rate of 7 or 8% are the bonds that can have the best performance.“, as long as monetary stability is maintained.
Looking to the coming months, Das Neves He was optimistic:If this forecast is maintained, Argentina will be able to continue to reduce the risks it faces and return to the international debt market, something that would have been unthinkable a few months ago.“, he concluded.
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