The kilo of beef was one of the gains that had the biggest impact on the day
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC) will publish this Thursday the consumer price index (CPI) for November, which would have again exceeded the 2 percent mark for the third month in a row, after reaching this threshold again in September.
After registering a sharp slowdown in May (1.5%) compared to April (2.8%) and March (3.7%), the inflation index slightly resumed its upward trend in June (1.6%), July and August (1.9% each), September (2.1%) and October (2.3%), which private analysts estimate would have continued in November.
In this way, the indicator that the statistical organization will announce next Thursday, December 11, would represent the continuity of the return to figures above 2%, which occurred in September and is expected to continue in the coming months.
It should be noted that, as reported by EL DIA in La Plata, the increase in prices was 2.2%, due to food, according to data published by the local Chamber of Commerce based on data from the Faculty of Economics.
What the market projects
The Market Expectations Survey (REM), prepared by the central bank based on private estimates, forecasts that inflation in the penultimate month of 2025 would have been 2.3% and assumes that interannual inflation in 2025 will be 30.4%.
The Equilibra report shows that monthly inflation rose to 2.5% last month, with the largest increases recorded in housing, water, electricity and other fuels (3.4%), transportation (3.4%), communications (3.1%), and food and non-alcoholic beverages (2.8%). The annual variation was estimated at 31%.
For its part, EcoGo Consultores estimated that inflation reached 2.5% last month, with the average fluctuation in food and beverages rising to 3%, claiming that “November was a month of normalization but also of corrections, which contributed to inflation continuing to rise.”
Regarding the dynamics of food prices, he highlighted that “both meat and fruit influenced the dynamics, especially in the first two weeks of the month, with corrections of 5.8% and 18.7%, respectively.”
The Freedom and Progress Foundation estimated that inflation closed at 2.3% in November. So cumulative inflation so far this year is 27.7%, while year-on-year fluctuation was 31.2%, slowing further.
They explained that “these tenths above the 2% that we have seen since September are largely due to the devaluation of the peso since the middle of the year, which will continue to have an impact in the coming months.”
Consulting firm C&T’s survey of retail prices for Greater Buenos Aires showed a monthly increase of 2.4% last month, explaining that “the dynamics of prices during the month were influenced in particular by three factors: the price of beef, Cyber Monday and regulated services.”
In this regard, he pointed out that “there has already been an increase in the price of beef since October and this even increased in November, giving a big boost to the category of food consumed at home (those with the greatest weight), which increased in that month by 2.6% above average.”
For his part, he noted that “Cyber Monday resulted in a price reduction on several items in the first week of the month, but particularly affected household appliances, which include various devices.”
Regarding regulated services, public transport, electricity and gas, the report noted that “increases were greater than in previous months”.
In this context, the consulting firm highlighted that the twelve-month price fluctuation decreased slightly to 29.1% last month.
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