The median of market economists’ projections for official Brazilian inflation in 2025 fell for the fourth consecutive week, from 4.43% to 4.40%, according to the Focus report of the Central Bank (BC), published this Monday (08) with estimates collected until last Friday (5).
For 2026, median expectations for the National Consumer Price Index (PCAI) increased from 4.17% to 4.16%; for 2027 it remained at 3.80% for the fifth consecutive week, and for 2028 it remained at 3.50%, also for the fifth consecutive week.
For the base interest rate (Selic), the median estimate remained at 15% at the end of 2025, for the 24th consecutive week; increased from 12% to 12.25% at the end of 2026, continued at 10.50% in 2027 for the 43rd week, and for 2028 declined from 9.75% to 9.50%.
Median growth projections for the Brazilian economy in 2025 increased from 2.16% to 2.25%.
For 2026, median expectations for gross domestic product (GDP) expansion rose from 1.78% to 1.80%, for 2027 it rose from 1.83% to 1.84%, and for 2028 it remained at 2% for the 91st consecutive week.
Median projections for the dollar at the end of 2025 remained at R$5.40.
For 2026, median expectations for the US currency remained at R$5.50, the same estimated value for 2027 and 2028.
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