I even understand what Jair Bolsonaro wanted to do by nominating his son Flávio to replace him in the presidential race. The current captain must have imagined that this gesture would appease the family which is on the warpath and would further extend the greatest political power he still has, that of influencing the right-wing camp in the first round of next year’s elections.
The reasoning is based on a fundamental asymmetry. If Bolsonaro gives his blessing to a right-wing candidate over whom he does not have complete control, such as Tarcísio de Freitas or another governor, he will in practice condemn himself to uselessness, because he will have exhausted his ultimate power.
And the situation gets worse, because Bolsonaro’s candidate, to have a chance of triumphing in the second round, will at some point have to distance himself from Bolsonaro and the great rejection that accompanies him.
With Flávio as his candidate, the former president would maintain control of the process until April, if he ensures that the right has a competitive candidate, or until October, if he chooses to keep the Bolsonaro last name in the spotlight.
The problem is that the scene was so poorly choreographed that no one believed the Bolsonaros were serious. Less than 48 hours after being anointed, Flávio himself has already announced that he may give up.
The latest Datafolha shows that Bolsonarism, although far from dead, is a force in decline. The majority of Brazilians (54%) believe that Jair’s conviction was fair: he is a putschist! — and he tried to escape — he’s a fugitive! If the clan tightens the rope too much, it risks seeing it break. The Centrão, although it prefers to see the victory of a right-wing president in 2026, survives well in any environment. The bloc continues to prosper with Lula at the head of the executive.
There is still good news for the portion of Brazilians who believe convicted criminals should suffer in prison. This arrest accelerates the decline of the former president’s political influence and the loss of his social status causes intense psychological suffering.
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