Less than two weeks before Extremadurans go to the polls on December 21, the electoral panorama appears very tilted in favor of the two large traditional parties: the PP and the PSOE.
According to data from the CEI pre-election survey, 35% voters from Extremadura You don’t know the main candidates who directly compete with the president of the PP, Maria Guardiolaand head of the PSOE list, Miguel Angel Gallardo.
The CIS quantifies this deficit of notoriety: while Guardiola and Gallardo are unknown respectively to only 5.4% and 9.9% of the electorate, the candidate of Vox, Óscar Fernández, is ignored by 31.4% voters.
As reflected in the public survey and the latest survey prepared by SocioMétrica for EL ESPAÑOL, Vox would be the third political force in the Extremadura Assembly after the 21-D.
The party president, Santiago Abascalis the national leader who visited the region the most during the pre-campaign: he spent up to six days in the territory, supporting Fernández in an attempt to remedy his anonymity.
The leader of Unidas por Extremadura, Irene de Migueldespite its 10-year history in the Assembly, is not recognized by 20.3% of the census.
The most acute case is that of Raúl Gonzalezhead of the list of the Together for Extremadura-Levanta coalition, which 54.3% of Extremadura residents admit to not knowing.
This ignorance translates into a clear competitive advantage for the most popular, as other surveys show. The pre-election survey of Sociometry For SPANISH places Guardiola at the limit of the absolute majority, with a projection between 30 and 32 placesat the limit of 33 necessary.
With these data, this would far exceed the sum of the PSOE, which would obtain between 21 and 22 seats, and Unidas por Extremadura, which would obtain between 4 and 5.
The “key”
Thus, if this electoral council is confirmed, and despite the lack of awareness of Raúl González’s profile by the majority of voters, Juntos-Levanta could play a key role in a hypothetical inauguration of Guardiola.
SocioMétrica grants a deputy to the regionalist coalition, which would present itself as the “key” of the regional executive and would give the PP the possibility of not depending on Vox to form a government.
However, the campaign strategy orchestrated by the popular party may not favor the concentration of votes.
María Guardiola refused to participate in the four-party debate proposed by RTVE after accusing the public entity of “mistreatment” and of following “a political strategy dictated by Moncloa”.
Instead, the President of the Council will attend the traditional debate in Extremadura Channelthis Thursday 11, which will feature ten participantsdespite the fact that currently there are only four political parties in the Assembly (PP, PSOE, Vox and Unidas por Extremadura) and that only Juntos-Levanta would have the possibility of access after the 21-D.
From the PP they argued that this wider format “better reflects the complex reality” of the region, but they will give the possibility of changing the popularity of the rest of the political forces competing in the elections.
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